In partnership with
___________________________________________________________________
🌙 Daily Prediction Market Moonshot Report
This wallet put $800 on the Louisiana senator at a fifth of a penny, buying a potential 500-times gross payout at the cheapest price on today’s board.
Kennedy has publicly left the door open to a presidential run, saying he would consider entering if “a bunch of goobers run” and he thinks he could do better. For now, he says his plan is to seek Senate reelection in 2028 rather than commit to a White House campaign.
At 0.2 cents, $800 buys 400,000 YES shares. Payout if correct: approximately $400,000.
This wallet is back. It’s the same one we flagged on October 23 putting about $6,900 on this split-Congress outcome.
It added about $1,200 more overnight at a lower price, bringing its flagged purchases to about $8,100 total.
Final New York Times/Siena polls show Democratic Senate candidates ahead in five of seven battleground states, with no clear leader in Alaska or Iowa.
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the Senate, while control of either chamber would give them the ability to investigate the administration and obstruct Trump’s legislative agenda.
At 0.7 cents, about $1,200 buys roughly 171,400 YES shares.
The purchases we’ve flagged would pay approximately $715,200 combined if Democrats take the Senate and Republicans keep the House, assuming the wallet still holds them.
This market asks exactly which of seven toss-up states—Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas—Republicans win. Two wallets picked specific maps within ten minutes of each other:
This wallet bought $773, then about $4,800 three minutes later, on Republicans winning Iowa, Kansas and Michigan and losing the other four. Payout if correct: approximately $485,900.
This wallet bought $978 on Republicans winning Michigan only and losing all six others. Payout if correct: approximately $97,800.
Both maps have Republicans flipping Michigan while losing Alaska, Maine, Ohio and Texas.
Michigan’s race took a late turn Sunday when Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens endorsed Republican Mike Rogers after losing the Democratic primary to Abdul El-Sayed. The final Times/Siena survey put El-Sayed ahead 53%–42%, but it was conducted before Stevens’ endorsement, leaving its potential effect unmeasured.
This wallet put about $2,000 on Talarico. On October 18, we flagged a different wallet buying him at the exact same price.
Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 50%–43% in the final Times/Siena poll, putting a Democratic Senate breakthrough in Texas within reach. His favorability remained positive despite a large negative advertising campaign funded chiefly by Elon Musk; a victory would make him the state’s first Democratic senator in roughly three decades.
At 2.8 cents, about $2,000 buys roughly 71,400 YES shares. Payout if correct: approximately $71,400.
1.9 cents. YES. About $1,000. Nov 1, 9:26 PM.
This wallet won’t quit. It’s buying Hilton again at 1.9 cents, less than half what it paid a week ago. That brings its flagged purchases backing Hilton or opposing Becerra to about $6,800 across five buys.
A late-October UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times poll put Xavier Becerra ahead 61%–34%, with Hilton viewed unfavorably by 56% of likely voters. Hilton spent the final weekend crisscrossing California and campaigning at a Halloween event wearing a Becerra mask, trying to break through before Tuesday’s vote.
At 1.9 cents, about $1,000 buys roughly 52,600 YES shares. Payout if correct: approximately $52,600.
4.4 cents. YES. About $4,200. Nov 1, 12:51 PM.
This wallet made the biggest single buy on today’s board: about $4,200 on Bitcoin hitting $76,000 on the last day of the week.
Bitcoin entered the weekend under pressure after Binance reported a security breach Friday, sending it to a six-week low. By Monday, Binance had partially resumed withdrawals, and Bitcoin was trading around $78,000 after losing roughly 6% in October.
This one has settled NO. The approximately 95,500 YES shares bought at 4.4 cents paid $0.
4.5 cents. YES. $922. Nov 2, 6:17 AM.
This wallet is betting on a much deeper drop, with the whole month to get there.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $643.3 million in net outflows Friday, their largest one-day withdrawal since June 25, as investors pulled back following the Binance breach. Bitcoin was still near $78,000 Monday morning, so reaching $57,500 would require another decline of roughly a quarter.
At 4.5 cents, $922 buys roughly 20,500 YES shares. Payout if correct: approximately $20,500.
Share counts and payouts use the reported purchase prices and notionals; rounded trade amounts produce estimates. Payouts are total proceeds, not net profits, exclude fees and assume shares are held through resolution.
10 Stocks Built for Growth and Income
There’s still room for growth in the market in 2026, and the all-new 10 Best Stocks to Own: Fall 2026 list is built for balance and upside.
Inside, you’ll find reliable dividend growers built to generate income...
Plus high-growth names positioned to benefit from some of the market’s biggest trends.
From AI infrastructure and energy to consumer growth and capital returns, these 10 stocks offer different ways to pursue opportunity this fall.
You don’t have to choose between income and growth.
See the 10 stocks positioned to offer both and get the full report while it’s still free.
___________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER:
The Content is not intended to provide, and does not constitute, financial, investment, trading, tax, legal, or any other form of professional advice. It is not a recommendation, suggestion, solicitation, or offer to buy, sell, trade, or hold any securities, event contracts, derivatives, cryptocurrencies, or other financial instruments on platforms such as Polymarket, Kalshi, or any other prediction market.
Prediction Market Edge believes the Content is reliable but makes no representations or warranties as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or suitability for any purpose. The Content is subject to change without notice, and Prediction Market Edge assumes no duty or obligation to update it.
Trading in prediction markets involves significant risk of loss, including the potential loss of your entire investment. Past performance (including any highlighted “wins” or gains) is not indicative of future results. Markets are volatile, influenced by news, liquidity, resolution rules, and other factors, and individual results will vary. Subscribers and readers should conduct their own independent research, consider their financial situation, risk tolerance, and objectives, and consult qualified professionals before making any trading or investment decisions.
Prediction Market Edge is not responsible for any third-party information, market data, platform rules, or services referenced herein, including but not limited to Polymarket, Kalshi, or other exchanges. Use of the Content is at your own risk.
By subscribing to or accessing this Newsletter or related materials, you agree that Prediction Market Edge and its affiliates shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, or other damages arising from your use of the Content.
For important additional information, please review our full Terms of Service, Privacy Policy, and any Subscription Agreement (available on predictionmarketedge.com).
