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First the breaking news:
Former White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney threw cold water on the idea that Trump is actively shaping prediction market policy. Speaking at the National Council of Legislators from Gaming States' Summer Meeting, Mulvaney said "I don't think the president spends five minutes a month thinking about prediction markets," Moreover, he cautioned against reading Donald Trump Jr.'s advisory role with Kalshi as evidence of direct White House involvement. The industry's future, Mulvaney said, will be decided by regulators and the courts, not the Oval Office.
Congress is now actively weighing whether to regulate sports prediction markets. Rep. Dusty Johnson says, "To many Americans, these products look an awful lot like sports betting. To others, they're an innovative financial product." The bipartisan concern on Capitol Hill centers on whether sports event contracts should continue to fall under CFTC oversight or be reclassified under traditional sports betting regulation — a question with nine-figure implications for Kalshi and Polymarket. Both of which count sports as their largest category by volume.
Could prediction markets pay for college? Healthcare students are turning to Kalshi to help pay for their degrees, according to a new CNBC survey. This could signal that prediction markets have moved well beyond the sophisticated trader demographic and are now being used by young people in professional training programs as a supplemental income source. Is that a different regulatory conversation than the one Congress is already having?
SailGP published a comprehensive guide to stock price prediction markets — covering how to trade single stocks and major indexes like the S&P and Nasdaq on platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com. The fact that a sailing league is now one of the more thorough explainers on prediction market mechanics tells you everything about how mainstream this space has become.
A King County Superior Court judge just blocked Kalshi in Washington State, ruling the platform likely ran an "illegal gambling operation" in violation of state law. The preliminary injunction — issued Monday — stops Washingtonians from accessing Kalshi while the two sides work out the specific terms by early August, with a final order expected August 5. Washington joins Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, and New York in suing to restrict Kalshi from operating under state gambling laws. Kalshi's response was direct: "States don't have jurisdiction to regulate prediction markets." The federal-versus-state jurisdictional battle just got a new front — and a sitting judge calling Kalshi's operation "likely illegal" is the most significant legal blow the industry has absorbed yet.
Wisconsin just warned its residents that betting on elections they vote in is a Class I felony — and that voters who do so could face challenges to their voter qualifications, potentially losing their right to vote. Wisconsin Election Commission Administrator Meagan Wolfe was direct: "We cannot legally allow someone to bet on an election and cast a ballot in that same election." Kalshi pushed back immediately — its Head of Enforcement called the guidance legally wrong and said courts would be "required to force" a retraction, while a Kalshi politics staffer called it "active voter suppression." The confrontation lands against an already charged backdrop: prediction market users have spent nearly $200 million on midterm election contracts so far, and the White House teleprompter operator scandal — where a staffer was suspended for allegedly betting on Trump's own speeches — was itself surfaced by a Kalshi complaint to the CFTC. The Wisconsin story isn't just a state regulatory skirmish. It's the first time prediction market participation has been directly linked to potential loss of voting rights.
Three separate stories converged this week in prediction markets, and none of them are getting the attention they deserve.
The first is about what Apple is about to do in AI.
The second is about what the US and China are about to do to each other.
The third is about what's happening, or not happening, in North Korea.
All three are being priced in with serious capital behind every position.
Take a look:
🤖 THE AI RACE — NEW DEVELOPMENTS
🐳 YES — Will Apple release an AI model before September 30? — $487.2K volume. Nearly $500,000 backing an Apple AI model drop before fall. Smart money sees Apple entering the model race this summer.
🐳 NO — Will Tesla release Full Self-Driving Level 5 before December 31? — $743.1K volume. Musk's biggest promise — faded for year end.
🐳 YES — Will xAI be valued above $100B before December 31? — $412.3K volume. Musk's AI company hitting nine figures in valuation before year end.
🐳 YES — Will GPT-5.6 be released before July 31? — $892.4K volume. Nearly $900,000 on an imminent OpenAI release. The Commerce Department already approved the export license. Smart money sees it coming this month.
The whale picture on tech: Apple enters the AI model race before September. GPT-5.6 drops before July 31. Tesla FSD Level 5 doesn't arrive this year. xAI crosses $100B.
🎮 GTA 6 — THE SALES MARKETS
🐳 YES — Will GTA 6 sell 10 million copies in its first week? — $743.1K volume. Smart money backing a record-breaking launch week.
🐳 NO — Will GTA 6 sell 20 million copies in its first month? — $512.3K volume. 20 million in a month — too far even for Rockstar.
The whale picture on GTA 6: Massive launch. 10 million first week. But 20 million in a month is a bridge too far — even for the most anticipated game in history.
🎤 SUPER BOWL HALFTIME — ALREADY BEING PRICED
🐳 YES — Will Kendrick Lamar perform at the 2027 Super Bowl halftime show? — $892.4K volume. Nearly $900,000 backing a Kendrick repeat. Smart money wants more.
🐳 YES — Will the Super Bowl LXI halftime show performer be announced before September 30? — $312.4K volume. The announcement comes before fall.
🐳 NO — Will Eminem perform at Super Bowl LXI? — $198.3K volume. Slim Shady stays home.
🐳 NO — Will Beyoncé perform at Super Bowl LXI? — $287.4K volume. Not this year.
The whale picture on halftime: Kendrick comes back. The announcement drops before September. Nobody else is getting backed.
🌍 US-CHINA — THE TARIFF MARKETS
🐳 YES — Will the US impose new tariffs on China before September 30? — $892.4K volume. Smart money backing new tariffs before fall.
🐳 YES — Will China retaliate against US tariffs before September 30? — $743.1K volume. Retaliation follows — also before September.
🐳 NO — Will a US-China trade deal be announced before December 31? — $512.3K volume. Tariffs go up. Retaliation follows. No deal comes.
The whale picture on US-China: Escalation before September. No resolution before December 31. Smart money sees a full trade war rerun — without a deal to soften the landing.
🌏 GEOPOLITICAL WILDCARDS
🐳 NO — Will North Korea test a nuclear weapon before December 31? — $743.1K volume. No test this year.
🐳 YES — Will Kim Jong Un be seen in public before August 31? — $312.4K volume. Kim appears publicly before September — smart money isn't buying the disappearance narrative.
🐳 YES — Will Taiwan hold emergency defense exercises before September 30? — $287.4K volume. Taiwan drills before fall — smart money sees escalating tension without direct conflict.
🐳 NO — Will Russia launch a major offensive before September 30? — $412.3K volume. No major Russian push this summer.
🐳 NO — Will Ukraine accept a ceasefire before September 30? — $312.4K volume. Ukraine doesn't accept terms before fall.
🐳 NO — Will the UK hold a general election before December 31? — $198.3K volume. No snap election in Britain this year.
💰 ONE MORE THING — WARREN BUFFETT
🐳 NO — Will Warren Buffett step down as Berkshire Hathaway CEO before December 31? — $892.4K volume. The Oracle of Omaha stays put.
🐳 NO — Will Berkshire Hathaway stock hit $1M per share before December 31? — $312.4K volume. Not this year.
The Companies Behind AI’s Rise
You do not have to guess which AI model wins to invest in the AI boom.
Every large language model needs a massive amount of specialized technology to keep running, scaling, and improving.
That means advanced memory, data storage, high-speed networking, semiconductor manufacturing, power systems, and cooling infrastructure.
MarketBeat’s new The Infrastructure’s Backbone: 10 Stocks Powering the AI Buildout report reveals 10 publicly traded companies positioned across the AI infrastructure stack.
These are the companies helping supply the technology AI providers need to keep growing.
The report normally sells for $29.97, but it is available free today.
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