In partnership with
___________________________________________________________________
Happy Thursday people. Cboe and Robinhood announced plans to launch new KPI contracts. Key Performance Indicator contracts tied to measurable economic and business metrics.
Cboe is one of the world’s largest derivatives exchanges. Robinhood is already generating more revenue from event contracts than from stocks.
Together, they are building a new product category inside mainstream financial infrastructure—not treating prediction markets as a novelty, but as a market Wall Street intends to own.
The Yankees jumped from 10% to 14% after a 9–0 Wild Card Game 1 win over the Red Sox.
The Padres rose from 7% to 9.6%. The Red Sox fell from 5% to 2%.
Sports Illustrated covered the moves the way it covers Vegas lines. Prediction-market odds are increasingly being treated as primary sports coverage. No surprise.
Plaee provides the operator stack: a white-label trading interface, CRM, personalization, and risk controls. ProphetX provides the CFTC-regulated exchange. The result: an operator can plug into a compliant prediction-market distribution business in weeks rather than build the infrastructure from scratch.
ProphetX handles regulation and operations; partners handle the audience.
It is the same division of labor that won in payments and crypto custody, and is now emerging in prediction markets.
Trade of the week?
This wallet put $4,500 on YES at 94.9¢ on Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 1? this morning at 8:49 AM.
Today is October 1. Bitcoin is trading well above $82,000.
At 94.9¢, $4,500 buys roughly 4,742 YES shares. If the contract resolves YES, the payout is about $4,742: roughly $242 in profit, or 5.4%, on a contract that resolves today.
The wallet is not making a big directional Bitcoin call. It is monetizing the gap between the current spot price and the contract’s final resolution.
Meet easypredict. Joined Polymarket in August 2025. 3,299 predictions. $37.7 million in total volume. All-time profit: $519,437.54. The equity curve is a straight line up and to the right.
Bitcoin was already above $82,000 when the wallet bought YES at 94.9¢. But the contract does not settle on today’s closing price, or on a general Bitcoin quote. It resolves on one specific Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle: the 12:00 PM ET candle.
The wallet was buying three hours of residual risk. Bitcoin only needed to be at or below $82,000 on that single closing print for YES to go to zero. At 94.9¢, the market still assigned roughly a 5.1% chance of exactly that outcome.
It is laddering Bitcoin-price contracts across consecutive dates, rolling capital forward as each market resolves. The edge is not that every contract is risk-free—Bitcoin can move fast—but that the wallet appears to be repeatedly buying outcomes it believes the market is underpricing.
In other events…
Is Russia is pricing a one-day clean miss?
🇷🇺 Will Russia target Kyiv on October 12, 2026?
6.0¢. NO. $1,900. 8:58 AM.
This wallet put $1,900 on NO—betting Russia does not specifically target Kyiv on October 12.
At 6¢ for NO, the trader is paying roughly $1,900 to buy about 31,667 NO shares, which would return approximately $31,667 if the contract resolves NO. The trade is effectively collecting the 94¢ premium attached to a one-day “no qualifying Kyiv target” outcome.
But this is not a generic peace bet because Russia has just stepped up attacks on the capital, with recent strikes reported against Kyiv’s energy infrastructure, a school, the area around a key bridge, and the grounds of the Institute for Nuclear Research.
That makes this a sharply defined calendar trade: the wallet does not need Russia to stop attacking Kyiv. It only needs October 12 to pass without whatever the contract’s resolution criteria define as Russia “targeting” the city.
Speaking of geopolitics…
This wallet put $1,500 on YES at 21¢—betting that the U.S. announces the end of its Iranian blockade before October 31.
At 21¢, $1,500 buys roughly 7,143 YES shares. If the announcement comes before Halloween, the payout is approximately $7,143.
This is the highest-conviction Hormuz trade we have seen in awhile.
And there is now appears to be a concrete diplomatic catalyst behind it. U.S. and Iranian officials have been working through mediators on a possible phased bargain: Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while Washington would lift its blockade on Iranian ports.
The trade is still difficult. Iran’s demands reportedly extend beyond reopening the strait, talks remain unresolved, and Washington has rejected at least one earlier proposal.
A general easing of tensions would not be enough, the market requires a specific U.S. announcement ending the blockade by October 31.
But the buyer is not simply betting on vague normalization. And the buyer isn’t betting that Iran will go back to any of Iran’s previous production levels. Instead, they are betting that live negotiations produce a formal announcement before Halloween.
We’ll see. It’s only the first of the month.
Forget SpaceX. These 7 Stocks Could Be Next.
You may not have gotten into SpaceX early, but the space-investing story is far from over.
Record launches, falling costs, government contracts and new technologies are turning space into a commercial market. That growth is creating opportunities across satellites, defense, communications, data and in-space infrastructure.
This free report 7 Best Space Stocks to Own in 2026 reveals seven publicly traded companies positioned across this expanding economy. It explains how each business makes money, what could move its stock and which risks investors should understand.
SpaceX captured Wall Street’s attention. Now see which seven space stocks could benefit from what comes next.
___________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER:
The Content is not intended to provide, and does not constitute, financial, investment, trading, tax, legal, or any other form of professional advice. It is not a recommendation, suggestion, solicitation, or offer to buy, sell, trade, or hold any securities, event contracts, derivatives, cryptocurrencies, or other financial instruments on platforms such as Polymarket, Kalshi, or any other prediction market.
Prediction Market Edge believes the Content is reliable but makes no representations or warranties as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or suitability for any purpose. The Content is subject to change without notice, and Prediction Market Edge assumes no duty or obligation to update it.
Trading in prediction markets involves significant risk of loss, including the potential loss of your entire investment. Past performance (including any highlighted “wins” or gains) is not indicative of future results. Markets are volatile, influenced by news, liquidity, resolution rules, and other factors, and individual results will vary. Subscribers and readers should conduct their own independent research, consider their financial situation, risk tolerance, and objectives, and consult qualified professionals before making any trading or investment decisions.
Prediction Market Edge is not responsible for any third-party information, market data, platform rules, or services referenced herein, including but not limited to Polymarket, Kalshi, or other exchanges. Use of the Content is at your own risk.
By subscribing to or accessing this Newsletter or related materials, you agree that Prediction Market Edge and its affiliates shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, or other damages arising from your use of the Content.
For important additional information, please review our full Terms of Service, Privacy Policy, and any Subscription Agreement (available on predictionmarketedge.com).
1 ^