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July 1, 2026
Happy Q3 people.
Back in March, MLB named Polymarket its exclusive Official Prediction Market Exchange partner, and signed a first-of-its-kind memorandum of understanding with the CFTC to establish an integrity framework for baseball prediction markets.
Commissioner Manfred said: "Protecting the integrity of the game on the field is our top priority."
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan, said "Bringing fans closer to the moments that define sports."
Both of those things are true. And both of them explain why, right now, serious whale money has built out a full World Series board in the prediction markets to include nearly every contender, every long shot, and every team in between…
With the full blessing of the league itself.
This isn't the good ole boy, back-alley gambling world the old guard was afraid of.
It's the official prediction market partner of Major League Baseball, backed by a CFTC integrity agreement, running markets on who wins it all in October.
Here we go, the near full World Series board, plus the Iran geography markets, the crypto all-time-high bets, and a Kentucky House primary with $756,000 behind it.
⚾ THE WORLD SERIES — THE FULL BOARD
Seventeen teams. Whale money on every single one. Here's where serious capital is sitting heading into the second half of the season.
🐳 YES — Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? — $62.5K volume. The only YES on the board. Whales backing Milwaukee — and nobody else.
🐳 NO — Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? — $24.2K volume.
🐳 NO — Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? — $21.7K volume.
🐳 NO — Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2026 World Series? — $19.6K volume.
🐳 NO — Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? — $18.2K volume.
🐳 NO — Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? — $10.3K volume.
🐳 NO — Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series? — $6.7K volume.
🐳 NO — Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? — $5.8K volume.
🐳 NO — Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? — $5.8K volume.
🐳 NO — Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? — $4.7K volume.
🐳 NO — Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? — $3.5K volume.
🐳 NO — Will the Athletics win the 2026 World Series? — $3.3K volume.
🐳 NO — Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? — $3.3K volume.
🐳 NO — Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? — $2.5K volume.
🐳 NO — Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? — $2.3K volume.
🐳 NO — Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? — $2.0K volume.
🐳 NO — Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? — $1.5K volume.
The whale picture: Milwaukee is the only team getting real conviction. Everyone else (including the big-market teams with the biggest payrolls) is getting faded simultaneously.
🇮🇷 THE IRAN MEETING — WHALES KNOW THE GEOGRAPHY
This is the strangest and most specific market cluster we've covered.
It's not whether the US and Iran meet again. It's where.
🐳 NO — Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026? — $511.6K volume. Half a million dollars on a geography question.
🐳 YES — Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026? — $188.5K volume. Oman is the favorite. By a wide margin.
🐳 YES — Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? — $92.4K volume. The second choice.
🐳 NO — Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria by September 30, 2026? — $25.4K volume.
🐳 NO — Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026? — $22.4K volume.
🐳 NO — Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? — $7.1K volume. Switzerland was the site of the original MOU signing. Whales don't think it happens there again.
🐳 NO — Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? — $8.3K volume. A meeting happens. The only question was always where.
🐳 NO — Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country by September 30, 2026? — $3.2K volume.
🐳 NO — Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? — $2.1K volume.
🐳 NO — Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia by September 30, 2026? — $2.0K volume.
The whale picture: Oman, decisively. Qatar a distant second. Everywhere else (Switzerland, Austria, Saudi Arabia, Russia) getting buried. Half a million dollars says the meeting happens somewhere specific, and the market has all but circled it on a map.
🇮🇷 MORE FROM IRAN
🐳 NO — US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? — $31.3K volume. Still no final deal, even with the extended timeline.
🐳 NO — Iran full airspace closure by August 31? — $3.3K volume.
🐳 NO — Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? — $76.6K volume. The other critical shipping chokepoint stays open.
🪙 CRYPTO — THE ALL-TIME-HIGH MARKETS
🐳 NO — Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? — $298.2K volume.
🐳 NO — Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? — $279.7K volume.
🐳 NO — Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? — $144.5K volume.
🐳 NO — Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026? — $52.6K volume.
🐳 NO — XRP all time high by September 30, 2026? — $2.4K volume.
🐳 NO — Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? — $24.3K volume.
The whale picture on crypto: No new highs anywhere. Across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, smart money sees the second half of the year as a holding pattern, not a breakout.
🗳️ DOWN-BALLOT — THE RACES NOBODY'S COVERING
🐳 NO — Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? — $756.0K volume. Three quarters of a million dollars on a single House primary.
🐳 YES — Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? — $638.2K volume.
🐳 NO — Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? — $157.4K volume.
🐳 YES — Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — $69.4K volume.
🐳 YES — Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — $34.4K volume.
🐳 NO — Will Sean Duffy win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Republican primary election? — $30.2K volume.
🐳 YES — Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? — $16.0K volume.
🐳 NO — Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? — $11.5K volume.
🐳 YES — Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary? — $5.8K volume.
🚀 IPO WATCH — ANTHROPIC ENTERS THE CONVERSATION
🐳 NO — Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? — $43.1K volume.
🐳 NO — Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? — $7.7K volume. Not this fall either.
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🌍 ONE MORE THING
🐳 NO — Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? — $37.7K volume.
🐳 NO — GTA 6 launch postponed again? — $46.5K volume. Whales betting against another delay.
🐳 YES — Will Olivia Rodrigo release a new original album by August 31? — $5.3K volume.
🐳 NO — Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? — $21.0K volume.
🐳 YES — Starmer out by October 31, 2026? — $38.5K volume. The deadline keeps moving. The whale conviction doesn't.
Q3 just started.
The World Series isn't until October. The Iran deal clock runs through September. The midterms are in November. The 2028 race has already begun.
Prediction market whales are already positioned on all of it, are you?
To follow the real-time, riveting live-feed prediction market experience, click here.
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