In partnership with
Happy Monday dear people…
@Gino_BetOpenly sponsored his daughter's preschool fundraiser. The sponsor sheet included Paradise Bank, Red Steel Properties, a language interpreting service — and BetOpenly's "Win More, Lose Less" banner. "The" he wrote. His wife pulled him aside: "You better not get them into gambling, I am friends with all the moms."
While Texas doctors push for a minimum age of 21 and the NYC Council investigates platforms targeting young people, someone just sponsored a preschool fundraiser.
The American Gaming Association commissioned a study finding that prediction market users overestimate their mathematical ability. The AGA (which represents casinos, sportsbooks, and the licensed gambling industry)found that sports bettors show high mathematical confidence AND high demonstrated ability.
Prediction market users show nearly as much confidence but perform closer to non-gamblers when actually tested. The AGA's conclusion: prediction markets are misleading consumers into thinking they just need to be smart to win, when they're actually up against sophisticated counterparties.
Take the source seriously before taking the finding seriously. The AGA represents DraftKings, FanDuel, and the casino industry, the same industry fighting prediction markets in court, losing market share to prediction markets, and lobbying against prediction market regulation at the federal level. This study was commissioned, not independent.
That doesn't make the finding wrong. It means the finding was produced by parties with a direct financial interest in making prediction market users look overconfident and unsophisticated.
An Israeli research institute warned that prediction markets are creating a loophole in election polling regulation. The Israel Democracy Institute published a study finding that platforms like Polymarket function as poll alternatives without being subject to transparency rules and publication restrictions that govern traditional election surveys. The core concern: prediction market probabilities can be presented to the public using metrics that resemble polling results, win probabilities, projected seat counts, while bypassing the disclosure requirements that apply to actual polls.
The researchers also found that relatively small sums can shift displayed win probabilities, and that Polymarket is not consistently more accurate than polls in low-volume markets. The study covers Israeli elections specifically but the argument applies universally, and the $3,500 manipulation finding from the ACDC report we covered two weeks ago makes the same point about US midterm markets.
Have a good one. Big week ahead.
10 Stocks at the Center of AI’s $1 Trillion Boom
AI’s growth story is much bigger than chatbots.
The market was already valued at an estimated $800 billion by late 2025, and continued adoption could push it beyond $1 trillion in the years ahead. That growth will require more data centers, computing power, software, networking and intelligent devices.
But the most obvious AI names may not be the only companies positioned to benefit.
MarketBeat’s free 10 Best AI Stocks to Own in 2026 report identifies ten publicly traded companies helping power the next phase of the AI buildout. Some are established leaders. Others occupy less obvious corners of the expanding AI ecosystem.
This free report names 10 stocks positioned to ride that wave before the rest of the market catches on.
___________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER:
The Content is not intended to provide, and does not constitute, financial, investment, trading, tax, legal, or any other form of professional advice. It is not a recommendation, suggestion, solicitation, or offer to buy, sell, trade, or hold any securities, event contracts, derivatives, cryptocurrencies, or other financial instruments on platforms such as Polymarket, Kalshi, or any other prediction market.
Prediction Market Edge believes the Content is reliable but makes no representations or warranties as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or suitability for any purpose. The Content is subject to change without notice, and Prediction Market Edge assumes no duty or obligation to update it.
Trading in prediction markets involves significant risk of loss, including the potential loss of your entire investment. Past performance (including any highlighted “wins” or gains) is not indicative of future results. Markets are volatile, influenced by news, liquidity, resolution rules, and other factors, and individual results will vary. Subscribers and readers should conduct their own independent research, consider their financial situation, risk tolerance, and objectives, and consult qualified professionals before making any trading or investment decisions.
Prediction Market Edge is not responsible for any third-party information, market data, platform rules, or services referenced herein, including but not limited to Polymarket, Kalshi, or other exchanges. Use of the Content is at your own risk.
By subscribing to or accessing this Newsletter or related materials, you agree that Prediction Market Edge and its affiliates shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, or other damages arising from your use of the Content.
For important additional information, please review our full Terms of Service, Privacy Policy, and any Subscription Agreement (available on predictionmarketedge.com).