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Prediction Market Edge
July 6, 2026
Meta reportedly considered acquiring Kalshi. Meta sat down with Kalshi's CEO to explore a deal, before deciding to build its own prediction market app from scratch instead.
They're calling it Arena. It uses AI to identify trending questions and spin up contracts automatically. Zuckerberg passed on buying the platform and decided to compete with it.
Meanwhile, Solana just launched World, the first fully on-chain prediction market built natively on the Solana blockchain. No bank account required. Everything settled in Solana-native stablecoins. Tag line: "Trade Everything."
And in Minnesota, Kalshi and Polymarket are in federal court fighting a first-of-its-kind state law that would make it a felony to operate a prediction market platform within the state. The federal government is siding with the platforms. The argument: the Commodity Exchange Act gives Washington exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts, and Minnesota is trying to seize regulatory territory that isn't theirs.
The industry is being acquired, cloned, launched on new blockchains, and fought over in federal court, simultaneously.
New platforms and traders are popping up left and right.
Yet, the biggest bets are happening right before our eyes.
We track over 40,000 markets daily on this platform.
Most of them are about things happening in the world, elections, wars, sports, crypto.
This one is about us.
Yep. you and me.
Right now, serious money has built out a full valuation ladder for one of the most popualar AI companies. Anthropic.
This is the company that makes Claude.
Here's where whale capital is sitting on Anthropic specifically, and AI broadly.
🤖 THE ANTHROPIC VALUATION LADDER
Smart money is betting on specific price targets at specific dates.
Here's the full board:
🐳 YES — Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? — $41.3K volume. The floor bet. Whales expect Anthropic clears $1.25 trillion this year.
🐳 YES — Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? — $248.2K volume. Smart money backing $1.75T before year end.
🐳 NO — Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? — $274.7K volume. $2 trillion — where conviction starts to fade.
🐳 YES — Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? — $176.3K volume. Three trillion. Someone is betting on it.
🐳 NO — Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? — $41.9K volume. Four trillion is a bridge too far for now.
🐳 NO — Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? — $9.7K volume. The downside scenario — faded.
🐳 NO — Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? — $1.0K volume. Collapse scenario — not on the table.
The whale picture on Anthropic valuation: Smart money is clustered between $1.75T and $3.0T. The $2T mark is where conviction splits — some backing it, more fading it. The downside scenario barely registers. Whales are bullish, not euphoric.
🚀 THE IPO QUESTION
🐳 YES — Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? — $7.6K volume. Small but directional — someone sees it happening this year.
🐳 NO — Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? — $45.2K volume. Not before fall.
🐳 NO — Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? — $8.2K volume. Definitely not by mid-September.
🐳 NO — Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? — $7.7K volume. Not by Halloween either.
🐳 NO — Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? — $1.5K volume. No acquisition coming.
🏆 THE AI MODEL RACE
🐳 YES — Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? — $80.1K volume. Smart money backing Anthropic's model supremacy through July.
🐳 NO — Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? — $39.4K volume. China's AI champion — faded.
🐳 NO — Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? — $82.8K volume. Biggest IPO of the year? Whales say no — SpaceX still takes that crown.
🐳 YES — Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? — $66.1K volume. SpaceX beats Anthropic on IPO size.
📊 NVIDIA — THE MARKET CAP RACE
🐳 YES — Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? — $174.2K volume. Smart money backing NVIDIA's dominance through July.
🐳 YES — Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? — $155.2K volume. And through year end.
🔐 THE WEIRD ONES
🐳 NO — Anthropic CEO arrested? — $21.4K volume. Someone made this market. Whales say no.
🐳 NO — AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2026? — $332.5K volume. The bubble burst thesis — faded hard.
🐳 YES — AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? — $3.3K volume. One of the hardest mathematical benchmarks in existence. Someone is backing an AI clearing 90% before year end.
The whale picture on AI: Anthropic sits between $1.75T and $3T in serious money's eyes. NVIDIA stays on top. No AI industry downturn. No Anthropic acquisition. SpaceX beats Anthropic on IPO size if both go public this year.
And someone, somewhere, put $21,000 on the Anthropic CEO getting arrested. Wild!
Happy Monday everyone.
Don’t Wait for the OpenAI IPO
OpenAI and Anthropic could be two of the biggest AI IPOs Wall Street has seen in years.
But investors don’t have to wait for those names to hit the public markets to get exposure to the AI boom.
MarketBeat’s 7 AI Stocks to Buy Now report reveals 7 publicly traded companies already positioned to benefit as the next wave of AI investment moves beyond the private model providers.
These are the stocks investors can buy today, before the IPO crowd rushes in.
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