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Today’s top stories:
Eagles’ Saquon Barkley says NFL directed him to sell stake in prediction market platform.
The NFL made Saquon Barkley sell his Polymarket stake. LeBron James reportedly gets $15 million a year to promote it. WHAT GIVES?
Barkley told Front Office Sports he had to divest his equity in Polymarket because NFL rules ban players from investing in or endorsing gambling or prediction market companies. His summary: “I was in it before, but no bueno.”
The NBA, MLB, NHL and MLS all have deals with Kalshi, Polymarket or both.
James reportedly earns $15 million a year as a paid Polymarket endorser and recently starred in a commercial alongside Derek Jeter, Eli Manning and Sue Bird.
WSJ Heard on the Street: Why prediction markets are so lucrative for Robinhood.
Your broker makes 175 times more on a prediction market bet than on a stock trade.
Robinhood earned $173 million from event contracts in the third quarter versus $121 million from stocks, and event contracts have out-earned equities every quarter since late last year.
Put $1,000 into Nvidia and Robinhood makes about 12 cents. Put the same $1,000 into 50-cent event contracts and it makes about $21.
Robinhood says customers who come for one product end up trading more of everything, and it now runs its own exchange, Rothera.
Reuters: Prediction market bets set the tone for Anthropic’s much-awaited IPO.
Traders aren’t waiting for Anthropic’s opening bell. They’re already betting on it.
Anthropic unveiled its IPO filing this week, and Reuters has reported the listing could value the company at $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion.
Polymarket has more than a dozen markets on the deal, covering the fundraising haul, the listing exchange and the debut valuation. Kalshi has contracts on which bank leads the offering and how index providers will classify the stock.
Combined, the markets have drawn tens of millions of dollars. Polymarket’s IPO-timing contract alone had traded $6 million by Wednesday morning.
For Robinhood, every contract is a winner.
For the traders on the other side, it’s a lot harder.
Some of them are swinging for the fences anyway.
Here’s where the biggest longshot money is leaning…
🌙 Prediction Market Whales Moonshot Report
This wallet recently put roughly $1,200 on Ro Khanna. 1.6 cents. YES. About $2,400 across two wallets.
This wallet put roughly $1,200 on Mark Kelly. It’s the same wallet that bought Beshear at 3.5 cents on Monday, so it has now bought two Democratic longshots.
That brings us to six Democratic nomination longshots flagged this month: Booker, Shapiro, Beshear, Clinton, Khanna and Kelly.
Both men are already cultivating donors ahead of potential presidential campaigns: Khanna gathered about 250 national donors in Menlo Park in August for a “national finance committee” meeting. Kelly hosted his top fundraisers at a Tucson retreat this month, offering golf and stargazing as the early competition for 2028 money heats up.
At 1.6 cents, each $1,200 buys 75,000 YES shares. They could walk away with approximately $75,000 each.
This wallet bet roughly $1,000 on a Republican Senate wave.
The GOP holds 53 seats now, so this needs a net gain of at least four.
Republicans are defending 22 of the 35 Senate seats on the ballot, leaving them more exposed than Democrats this cycle.
Six of the seven races rated toss-ups by Cook Political Report as of October 22 are Republican-held seats, with Michigan the lone Democratic-held seat in that group.
🕊️ Ceasefires: three wallets bet on breakdowns by Saturday
This wallet bought $772, then $950 thirty seconds later, both at 3.8 cents.
Yesterday, we flagged a different wallet buying the same outcome at 3 cents. While this buyer paid more the payout if correct is approximately $45,300.
This wallet bought $824 at 4.1 cents, and this wallet added $800 at 3.8 cents that night. Payout if correct: approximately $41,200.
Qatari mediators presented a new plan to end the war with the US and Israel, according to an official briefed on the talks, who described seven days of confidence-building steps and an Iranian response expected by week’s end. A senior Iranian official disputed that account Wednesday, calling Qatar’s suggestions “unacceptable ideas and not an offer” and saying Tehran would not soften its position on the nuclear issue.
You Pay Them Every Month. Now It's Your Turn to Get Paid.
Every time you fill up or open your power bill, an energy company gets paid. Gas prices just set an October record. Iran is firing on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and Russia's oil exports are getting choked off by attacks on its tankers and oil infrastructure.
Then there's AI. Data centers are pulling power off America's grid faster than anyone can build it, and tech giants are signing deals for entire power plants just to keep their servers running.
So the best performing sector of 2026 isn't tech, and it isn't AI. It's energy, up around 40% this year while most investors were busy chasing chip stocks.
We've found the #1 energy stock to end 2026 strong. Get it free, and we'll text you the name.
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