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A federal judge halted Minnesota's prediction market ban — the first state law of its kind in the country. Judge Katherine Menendez granted a preliminary injunction blocking the law from taking effect, ruling that Kalshi, Polymarket, and the Trump administration were likely to prevail and would face "irreparable harm" if the ban went into force. The 44-page ruling centered on federal preemption — the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over event contract derivatives, and Minnesota can't override that. Round one goes to the platforms.
The Trump administration's proposed CFTC prediction market rule drew 1,444 public comments, and the opposition was overwhelming. Lawmakers, Native American tribes, consumer advocates, and the attorneys general of 44 states all pushed back. The AGs said the proposal "takes a sledgehammer to the states' historic power." Former Senator Christopher Dodd — who co-sponsored the 2010 law that gave the CFTC its authority — said Congress never intended to make the CFTC a national gambling regulator. The CFTC's chairman disagrees. That fight is now heading to court.
The American Gaming Association, Indian Gaming Association, and AGEM filed separate protests with the CFTC — the IGA called the proposal "an insult to the principles of tribal sovereignty" and "a poorly disguised attempt to appease major prediction market platforms." The AGA's CEO was blunt: "The Commission is a financial-markets regulator, not a national gaming commission." The AGEM said the CFTC "lacks the expertise, staffing, and statutory mandate to regulate gaming." Three of the most powerful gaming lobby organizations on earth just formally declared war on prediction market expansion.
Minnesota's Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan, who could become the first Native American woman elected to the US Senate, is running explicitly against prediction markets and prediction market money is lining up against her. Flanagan called out her Democratic primary opponent Congresswoman Angie Craig for accepting maximum contributions from Kalshi's founders and executives. Tribal gaming officials have called prediction markets "an existential threat." The August 11 primary is now a live test of whether prediction market opposition can become a winning political issue.
The NCSL documented the full scope of the state-federal-tribal jurisdictional battle — as federally regulated event contracts move into sports, lawmakers are weighing how prediction markets fit with state gambling laws, tribal gaming compacts, and consumer protections. The piece captures exactly where the legal fault lines are and why they're so hard to resolve cleanly.
BetMGM cut its annual outlook for the second time this year and abandoned its $500 million profit target — explicitly blaming prediction market competition. The company expects full-year revenue and adjusted profit to come in at the lower end of its forecast ranges. Meanwhile FanDuel, DraftKings, and Fanatics have all launched their own prediction market products, raising customer acquisition costs across the entire industry. The traditional sportsbook model is under direct attack and the industry is now publicly admitting it.
Robinhood beat Q2 estimates by a wide margin — revenue rose 32% year over year, transaction revenue jumped 44%, and the company specifically credited event contracts as a primary driver. Q2 EBITDA of $741 million crushed the $613 million consensus estimate. The stock trades at 39 times forward earnings, up from 28 three months ago. While BetMGM bleeds market share, Robinhood is capturing it. The prediction market boom has a clear winner in traditional finance — and it's the platform that moved fastest.
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