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March 3, 2026

Sunday night. This market opened at 30% this morning, spiked to 39% tonight, and is sitting at 36% as this goes out.

That kind of intraday move in a geopolitical market could mean the crowd trying to price a fast-moving situation in real time.

However…

This market resolves on a specific number: the IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz hitting 60 or above at any point before April 30, 2026.

Not a ceasefire. Not a statement. Ships moving at near-normal levels.

Before the conflict, the Strait was running about 100+ ships per day. The 7-day average was comfortably above 60. That was normal.

As of March 15, the most recent data point available, the Strait is seeing roughly 4 ships per day. Container ships: 0. Dry bulk: 3. General cargo: 1. Roll-on/roll-off: 0. Tankers: effectively zero.

The 7-day moving average has collapsed. The market needs that number to get back to 60.

It is a 15x increase in daily ship traffic, sustained for 7 straight days, with 39 days left on the clock.

Nobody knows how this ends.

First, the security situation has to improve enough for insurers to reassess war risk. If underwriters won’t cover the route, ships don’t move.

Which, according to breaking news this morning. Might happen.

Second, ship owners have to reverse course. Vessels rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope aren’t coming back instantly.

Third, the traffic has to sustain.

One good day doesn’t matter.

You need a full week above 60 for the 7-day average to qualify.

One trader in the comments put it well: even if a ceasefire happened today, it could still take 8 weeks or more for traffic to recover. April 30 is only 39 days away.

Saturday night, Trump threatened to obliterate Iran’s power plants if the Strait isn’t reopened within 48 hours. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, responded Sunday that the Strait is not closed, that ships are hesitating because insurers fear war, and that freedom of navigation requires freedom of trade.

Technically, he’s right. Iran hasn’t physically blocked the Strait. But de facto disruption is what matters here.

If ships aren’t transiting and insurers won’t write coverage, the route is closed in all the ways that count for this contract.

The market’s move from 39% back to 36% Sunday night suggests traders did not like what they heard.

But again, like I said. We just had breaking news it looks like both sides are closer to an agreement.

Also, last night it was reported there were some big oil future selling that indicated a potential cease-fire.

When the market opened, someone put $10,000 on Yes at 25 cents. That position is now up nicely on paper. They’re definitely UP in their position today.

That’s the kind of entry you make when chaos is cheap.

The open question is whether they hold through the next 48 hours or take the gain and move on.

If you’re going to take this trade, don’t forget, the contract doesn’t care about headlines.

It cares about 60 ships per day on a 7-day moving average before April 30.

Right now the Strait is at roughly 4. The recovery needed is not a small rebound. It is a sustained, dramatic reset in shipping behavior, insurance pricing, and regional risk.

The IMF Portwatch chart is the only number that matters for this contract. Right now it shows 4 ships.

Here’s a link to the chart.

Good luck this week.

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