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Happy Tuesday!
I’ve been quietly testing the PMW model on NBA games. It isn’t public yet, but last night it picked three:
✅ Celtics over the Nets
✅ Knicks over the Pistons
✅ Spurs over the Kings
I put all three into a Kalshi combo. $49 in, $115.59 out, a $66.59 profit (+136%).
Still working through some tweaks. But dang, it’s already showing potential.
Now, onto the biggest asymmetric bets in prediction markets…
🏦 THE FED: Everyone expects a hold. Whales are betting on a hike.
The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged Wednesday, even as the Iran war pushes oil and gasoline prices higher. September brought its first rate increase in three years, and Chair Kevin Warsh’s post-decision press conference will be watched for clues about whether another hike is coming in December.
The longshot money isn’t waiting for December. About $12,800 in new buys across five wallets is betting the Fed moves today:
50+ bps hike (0.3–0.4 cents): This wallet, which we flagged yesterday, came back for a third buy of about $1,300, bringing it to about $3,300 total. Then a new wallet bought three times ($965, then about $1,900, then about $4,000), for about $6,900. If the Fed hikes 50 or more, the two wallets’ combined positions pay roughly $2.8 million.
25 bps hike (3.5–3.8 cents): This wallet bought about $1,800, and this wallet added $945. Payout if correct: approximately $76,300.
Any change (3.8 cents): This wallet bought about $1,900 of NO on “no change,” which pays on a cut or a hike. Payout if correct: approximately $50,000.
⚾ THE WORLD SERIES: The Rays survive another day.
Tampa Bay staved off elimination with a 4–3, 12-inning win Tuesday, cutting Milwaukee’s series lead to 3–1. Ben Williamson delivered the walk-off hit after the Rays entered the bottom of the 12th trailing by a run, forcing Game 5 tonight.
Before that game, Milwaukee was trading around a 96% chance to win the title. Two wallets bet the other way within 41 minutes on the World Series market:
This wallet bought Brewers NO three times in about a minute, for about $6,600 at 3.6–3.7 cents.
This wallet, one of the three that cashed Gladbach at 4 cents last week, bought $805 of Brewers NO, then about $1,000 of Rays YES 30 seconds later.
That’s on top of the about $5,900 another wallet put on the Rays yesterday morning.
Today’s buys pay approximately $234,700 if Tampa Bay wins it all. That’s a big IF. But, we’ll see.
I have a small $25 position they’ll win it all. Even with last night’s win, I’m still not so sure.
🗳️ THE LONG GAME: 2028, and one stubborn California bet.
🚀 This wallet put $936 at 0.2 cents on Elon Musk winning the 2028 presidency. An “Elon 2028” committee recently registered with the FEC, though its paperwork says it is unaffiliated with Musk. Its website acknowledges that Musk, a naturalized citizen born in South Africa, is constitutionally ineligible, and says its mission is to change the rule. Payout if correct: approximately $468,000.
🫏 This wallet put about $2,000 at 1.4 cents on Chelsea Clinton winning the 2028 Democratic nomination. She’s the fourth Democratic longshot we’ve flagged this month, after Booker, Shapiro and Beshear. Clinton visited the Pittsburgh area last Thursday for the Clinton Foundation’s literacy initiative and co-authored a maternal-health playbook with Hillary Clinton this month. Payout if correct: approximately $142,900.
🐻 This wallet is back for a third day in the California governor’s race. It bought about $1,300 more of Hilton YES at 3.5 cents, then about $1,000 of NO on Xavier Becerra at 3.7 cents, which also pays if Becerra loses. That’s now about $5,800 on Becerra losing. Hilton has made affordability and a break from Democratic rule central to his campaign, while Becerra keeps tying him to Trump. Today’s buys pay approximately $64,200 if Hilton wins.
Share counts and payouts use the reported purchase prices and notionals; rounded trade amounts produce estimates. Payouts are total proceeds, not net profits, exclude fees and assume shares are held through resolution.
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