In partnership with
Five things happening inside the prediction market industry that you need to know about.
1. The data layer is the real power, and one company just took control of it.
Rich Jenkins, a fintech operations leader, did the unthinkable… Genius Sports is now the official data and integrity provider for both Kalshi and Polymarket. When the two biggest prediction market platforms both rely on the same data provider to resolve contracts, the leverage shifts quietly but decisively to that data company. Jenkins put it plainly: "The consumer brand gets the headlines. The company that owns the accurate, auditable data layer ends up owning the risk and the economics." Watch Genius Sports — not Kalshi or Polymarket — as the infrastructure play in this space.
Power is in the data. Another place to cull data is right here.
2. Underdog sold for $2 billion. Here's what that actually means.
Justin Hochberg posted about the Underdog acquisition and framed the bigger point that we all know: prediction markets aren't betting sites, they're information markets. "Betting sites sell entertainment. Prediction markets produce information." Underdog grew to nearly 1 million monthly active users and $466 million in annual revenue in six years — raising relatively little venture capital — before being acquired for $2 billion. Andrew Petcash wrote the definitive breakdown of how they did it: creator-led distribution, product simplicity, and an early pivot into prediction markets before anyone else saw it coming. Seed investors who got in early likely 25x'd their money at a ~70% gross IRR. That's the outcome that's going to bring serious capital into this space.
3. Novig just made three moves in one week.
The New York Mets named Novig their Official Prediction Markets Partner — the first MLB team to partner with a prediction market platform. Novig launched its federally regulated sports prediction market nationwide and has already crossed $6 billion in cumulative trading volume. And Novig signed an exclusive partnership with The 4th Quarter for premium prediction market content. Three announcements, one week. Novig is moving fast and positioning itself as the sports-native alternative to Kalshi and Polymarket.
4. JuiceX just received CFTC approval.
JuiceX secured CFTC DCM designation to launch a regulated sports event contracts exchange — focused specifically on professional football. That's now Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig, Underdog, and JuiceX all operating as CFTC-regulated prediction market exchanges. The market is fragmenting fast. The question is whether liquidity consolidates back to one or two dominant platforms or stays dispersed across the field.
5. The Q2 2026 State of Prediction Markets report just dropped — and the numbers are staggering.
Pet Berisha and Omar El Safy published a 70-page report on the industry — free — and the headline numbers speak for themselves. Prediction markets traded $111 billion between April and June. That's more than all of 2024 and 2025 combined. June alone traded $52.7 billion — the biggest month in the industry's history. During the World Cup, prediction market apps had more daily active users in the US than sportsbook apps. And Robinhood now earns more from prediction markets than from stocks or crypto — having built its own exchange and clearing house with Susquehanna that has cleared over 3.5 billion contracts.
$111 billion in one quarter. More users than sportsbooks during the World Cup. The infrastructure is being built at a pace that makes the regulatory fight look like it's already running behind.
Speak naturally. Send without fixing.
Wispr Flow turns your voice into clean, professional text you can send the moment you stop talking. Not rough transcription you have to clean up. Actual polished text — ready for email, Slack, or any app.
Speak the way you think. Go on tangents. Change your mind mid-sentence. Flow strips the filler, fixes the grammar, and gives you text that reads like you spent five minutes writing it.
89% of messages sent with zero edits. Millions of professionals use Flow daily, including teams at OpenAI, Vercel, and Clay. Works on Mac, Windows, and iPhone.
___________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER:
The Content is not intended to provide, and does not constitute, financial, investment, trading, tax, legal, or any other form of professional advice. It is not a recommendation, suggestion, solicitation, or offer to buy, sell, trade, or hold any securities, event contracts, derivatives, cryptocurrencies, or other financial instruments on platforms such as Polymarket, Kalshi, or any other prediction market.
Prediction Market Edge believes the Content is reliable but makes no representations or warranties as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or suitability for any purpose. The Content is subject to change without notice, and Prediction Market Edge assumes no duty or obligation to update it.
Trading in prediction markets involves significant risk of loss, including the potential loss of your entire investment. Past performance (including any highlighted “wins” or gains) is not indicative of future results. Markets are volatile, influenced by news, liquidity, resolution rules, and other factors, and individual results will vary. Subscribers and readers should conduct their own independent research, consider their financial situation, risk tolerance, and objectives, and consult qualified professionals before making any trading or investment decisions.
Prediction Market Edge is not responsible for any third-party information, market data, platform rules, or services referenced herein, including but not limited to Polymarket, Kalshi, or other exchanges. Use of the Content is at your own risk.
By subscribing to or accessing this Newsletter or related materials, you agree that Prediction Market Edge and its affiliates shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, or other damages arising from your use of the Content.
For important additional information, please review our full Terms of Service, Privacy Policy, and any Subscription Agreement (available on predictionmarketedge.com).