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Happy Wednesday people, big day today…
Canada is ahead of the US on regulated prediction markets. Wealthsimple launched Wealthsimple Predict, a prediction market trading app powered by Kalshi, targeting approximately four million Canadian clients. The Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization authorized two dealers (Wealthsimple and Interactive Brokers Canada) to facilitate event contract trading as of March 26 under strict new rules.
The authorized categories are specific to economic forecasts, environmental indicators, financial data. No sports. No politics.
Meanwhile Gemini Titan and Apex Fintech signed a letter of intent making Gemini the exclusive regulated venue for crypto event contracts distributed through Apex's FCM to US brokerage customers. The institutional distribution infrastructure is being built on both sides of the border simultaneously.
Seven MLB teams now have prediction market partnerships… Kalshi announced five team deals Tuesday: Braves, Red Sox, Dodgers, Padres, Giants. They join the Mets (Novig) and Yankees (Polymarket). Kalshi is reportedly in talks for a league-level deal on top of the team partnerships.
The Athletic spoke to multiple principals about why this is happening now, the answer is straightforward: MLB's Polymarket partnership earlier this season made team deals inevitable, and the customer acquisition race is expensive enough that nobody wants to be left out. Danny Funt, author of Everybody Loses, put it plainly: "Most customers aren't using a bunch of platforms. They're using one or two. So you want to spend a lot to be the one or two." The money won't flow endlessly. Every team without a deal is watching the window close.
The Yankees are losing ground in the American League prediction market — and the Rays are closing fast… Sports Illustrated covered Kalshi's AL winner market directly: Yankees at 25%, Rays at 22%. In mid-June the Yankees held a near 30% lead with the Rays at just 7%.
Since then the Yankees went 8-14 to finish the first half while the Rays went 14-8. Tampa Bay now leads the standings by 3.5 games. SI covering Kalshi prediction market odds the same way it covers Vegas lines is another reason to beleive prediction markets are here to stay.
The American Prospect published a piece arguing the house always wins on Kalshi. It’s almost good. But tirelessly misleading. The article frames the maker/taker dynamic as a scandal unique to prediction markets, “a systematic wealth transfer from ordinary users to Wall Street institutions” hiding behind the infrastructure of a supposedly democratic platform…
But the problem with that is a) they have no evidence that ALL makers are institutions.
and b) they’re describing every liquid market on earth.
Makers beat takers on the NYSE.
Makers beat takers on options exchanges.
The sportsbook IS the maker… it sets the line, charges the vig, and profits from the spread between both sides by design.
On crypto exchanges, maker/taker fee structures are standard and explicit — makers receive rebates precisely because their liquidity benefits the platform.
Payment for order flow exists on Robinhood because routing retail taker flow to Citadel and Virtu is profitable. The SEC has been arguing about this for years. But in prediction markets it’s differnet? SMH.
🌙 MOONSHOT TRADES OF THE DAY
2.5 cents. YES.
Two wallets hit this market at the exact same moment — 12:11:24 AM yesterday.
This wallet put $5,500 on YES at 2.5 cents. This one followed with $2,100 at 2.6 cents. Same second. Different wallets. $7,600 combined on Tucker Carlson winning the Republican nomination.
At 2.5 cents, $5,500 buys roughly 220,000 YES shares. If Carlson wins the nomination — that position pays out approximately $220,000.
Two wallets. Same moment. $7,600 on Tucker. Make of that what you will.
Still going. Still adding.
This wallet put $1,000 on YES at 1.3 cents yesterday morning. Then came back this morning and put another $2,000 on YES at 1.5 cents.
That's the same wallet adding to the same position on consecutive days while still underwater. Combined with our previously featured Fed wallet — 0x3750…cbdd — which has been dollar-cost averaging into this market for weeks — someone is very convinced the Fed moves in September.
Full transparency — I have a small position in this market too. Same direction.
1.9 cents. YES. September 15 — twenty days from now.
This wallet put $1,300 on YES yesterday afternoon.
At 1.9 cents, $1,300 buys roughly 68,400 YES shares. If Hormuz traffic somehow normalizes by September 15 — that position pays out approximately $68,400.
The PortWatch data shows traffic at a fraction of historical norms. Iran is threatening 45 tankers. The 60-day ceasefire window has closed. Someone just paid $1,300 to say everything resolves in 20 days.
🗳️ The 2028 Democratic Field — Two Long Shots:
This wallet put $1,000 on Cory Booker at 0.6 cents. This one put $1,100 on Wes Moore at 1.2 cents.
Booker at 0.6 cents. Moore at 1.2 cents. Someone is shopping the entire Democratic bench for the longest odds available.
At 0.6 cents, $1,000 on Booker pays out $166,000 if he wins the nomination.
At 1.2 cents, $1,100 on Moore pays out $91,600.
Nobody thinks either of these wins. Two wallets disagree — and they're paying pennies per share to find out.
More moonshot opportunities updated in real time at Prediction Market Whales.
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