United Airlines reports Q4 2025 earnings tomorrow, January 21st at 10:30am EST. I’m writing this the morning of Martin Luther King Day…

While Kalshi traders are deciding on whether "ATC," "JetBlue," or "Union" get mentioned, they could be missing the words that actually matter.

Here's what the market thinks Scott Kirby—United's CEO since 2020 and the primary voice on every earnings call—will talk about…

Air Traffic Control (66% chance of mention), JetBlue partnership stuff (51%), and union negotiations (43%)…

Actually, scratch that.

Llet me drop the entire list here. Again, from yesterday morning.

I built a tracker that counts every single mention of 12 key terms across United's last five earnings calls (Q3 2024 through Q3 2025).

The results show some words are rock-solid reliable.

Some spike and vanish.

And others, like "Shutdown"—appear out of nowhere.

Except when you zoom out in context, there’s a reasons. And it looks like it could explode.

Instead of relying on just one earnings call (which specific mentions in it could be an anomaly), I built a tool to help us without wasting time.

Thanks to the Mention SuperMeter, we can identify potential predictable patterns in corporate communication by analyzing multiple quarters, and in no specific order.

Anything stand out to you?

See that Newark line?

Zero mentions for three straight quarters (Q3 2024, Q4 2024, Q1 2025), then BOOM… 26 mentions in Q2 2025, then back down to 6 in Q3.

Newark Liberty (EWR) (United's crown jewel NYC hub) had a perfect storm: runway construction, FAA radar failures, controller staffing shortages, and an overscheduled airport that couldn't handle summer thunderstorms.

It was so bad it dominated the earnings call.

Point is, using the Prediction SuperMeter helps guide us in our research and prediction intelligence.

Again, what stands out to you. I’ll tell you what stands out to me in a minute.

But before I do, real quick sidebar.

Other people talk about “earnings calls”, as if they read them, or as if they used an AI software to try and read all of them.

Do they realize how much time this takes? I don’t know.

The point is, beware of the comments sections and peanut galleries in the comment sections.

Louder for the people in the back: ⚠️ Beware of the Peanut Gallery in the Comment Section on Kalshi and Polymarket.

I’m not one to name names but when you’re gathering intel, for any prediction market, please be careful about where (and who) you’re sourcing information. including me. I’ve told you all to do your own research, verify, etc…

Here’s someone claiming “holiday” appeared in “the last ten” earnings calls”.

It did not. He was wrong. I don’t know why.

Looking for liquidity? ¯\(ツ)/¯.

Now, could “Holiday” appear this time around?

Sure, we're coming off a holiday season, and Q4 is naturally when you'd discuss holiday travel performance. And don’t forget United’s big “Holiday Magic with Fantasy Flights” thing talked about here.

So it’s possible. but be careful about the peanut galleries.

End rant.

One thing to remember, is the U.S. federal government shut down for 43 days from October 1 to November 12, 2025—the longest shutdown in U.S. history.

Forcing the FAA to order ~10% flight cuts at 40 major airports due to air traffic controller staffing shortages.

United canceled over 500 flights in early November alone and had to offer refunds on non-refundable tickets while paying pilots and flight attendants premium rates to cover disruptions.

Your gonna tell me they’re NOT going to mention “Shutdown” on the earnings call?

Look, I'm not going to tell you there's some massive mispricing here where there’s a chance for a ten bagger.

This event looks pretty efficiently priced in my opinion.

_{^{ATC at 66%, JetBlue at 51%, Union at 43% are all in the realm of reasonable given the uncertainty. Although I think ATC could be 75%. I’m not playing it though.}}

But here's the thing: if you're into "bonding plays"—taking high-probability positions for modest gains—there might be something here…

Quick explainer on bonding: In markets like Kalshi, contracts trade from 1¢ to 99¢, where the price = implied probability.

When a contract trades at, say, 95-99¢ YES (or 1-5¢ NO), you're essentially buying near-certainty for almost full price. You invest 99¢, get $1 back if correct = 1% return.

Not sexy, but the edge comes from markets systematically overpricing longshots (people love lottery tickets), which means favorites are often slightly underpriced.

Do it enough times on high-probability outcomes, and small edges compound.
That’s a lot of risk for minimum gain in my opinion though.

I had a mentor once who used to say, I’d rather risk a little to make a lot, then risk a lot to make a little. I’ll write about him some day.

So if there’s no 95-99% plays, what about something we could feel confident about, without risking our shirts…

I call it “Probability Farming”.

Not quite bonding for 1-5% gains, but comfortably going for the 10-20% gains.

Remember,

Now, you could argue: "Shutdown already happened in Q4. It's over. Maybe management just briefly acknowledges it and moves on."

That's valid! Maybe it only gets 3-4 mentions instead of 8-15. Or zero mentions!

But the Q3 call happened in mid-October 2025 when the shutdown was still ongoing (it didn't end until Nov 12).

and it wasn’t mentioned a lot during the last call.

Q4 call is happening after the shutdown ended, meaning management may have to explain the actual financial damage. The canceled flights, refunded tickets, premium pilot/FA pay, lingering schedule disruptions that couldn't "snap back" immediately.

Just like how “Newark” was mentioned 26 times in Q2, will United be forced to explain the consequences of cancelling 500 flights during a “Shutdown”?

Could “Shutdown” pull a “Newark”?

Maybe the way to frame this event is instead of focusing on the right words management will say on the call— it’s in understanding what management is going to have to explain in reporting the results.

Then working from there.

Here's what I'll be listening for on Wednesday:

Until tomorrow.

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