Welcome to Space X Week…today we’re looking at whether SpaceX or OpenAI will IPO first…
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If you've ever wanted exposure to SpaceX but couldn't find a clean way in, this is it.
No space ETFs, no jerry-rigged options plays.
A binary contract on a specific outcome with clearly defined risk and a clear resolution date.
Two of the most anticipated IPOs in modern market history.
Right now, the crowd says SpaceX. And at about 83-85%, it's not even close.
SpaceX Is the Heavy Favorite
Multiple reports place an active mid-2026 target, up to $50 billion in proceeds, at roughly a $1.5 trillion valuation.
The CFO is already talking to investors.
Major banks are being lined up.
And Musk himself has publicly said reports of a 2026 SpaceX IPO are "accurate."
Granted, there’s times when Musk made announcements of things that didn’t pan out. E.g. Tesla Roadster, Cybertrucks…
Could this be different this time?
SpaceX is already a profitable infrastructure company.
Starlink is generating serious revenue, the launch business is the backbone of commercial space, and the capex appetite for what comes next is enormous.
Starship scale-up, space-based AI infrastructure, lunar ambitions — you can't finance a $1.5 trillion vision indefinitely through private rounds.
At some point the math forces a public offering.
That point appears to be 2026.
There's also the macro trader angle: Prediction markets let you take a direct view and stake on a SpaceX IPO milestone.
Not diluted ‘space exposure’ via indices or funds that only loosely touch what you actually care about.
Why OpenAI Is Losing This Race
It doesn’t look like OpenAI isn't not going public.
But it looks like’s getting there slower.
It’s messier.
The structure alone is a headache.
Besides, isn’t it a nonprofit? Did they switch?
There’s a public benefit corporation underneath, a revised economic relationship with Microsoft that runs to 2032 and captures roughly 20% of revenue…
Plus ongoing multi-billion dollar private funding rounds that on one hand they could be good structurally to stay as-is, or go public.
What’s the rush?
It’s an already complicated process by the fact that OpenAI is still burning enormous amounts of capital with no clear near-term profitability story for public markets.
Reporting frames OpenAI's IPO as "considering filing as soon as the second half of 2026" — which is a very different sentence than "targeting mid-2026 with banks already engaged."
CONSIDERING?
How much of this is Sam Altman versus Elon Musk?
“Who’s going to IPO first”? “No, I am”…
Anyway, several analysts argue OpenAI's IPO is as much about legitimacy and sector benchmarking as it is about capital raising,
Which, IMO, means they have the flexibility to push it past 2026 if they have to.
What’s the rush?
SpaceX doesn't have that flexibility.
It has rockets to build.
We’re going to Mars!
So Why Isn't This 95%?
Good question.
OpenAI could still pull a rabbit out of their hat.
Surprises could happen.
If Microsoft's stake gets restructured, if a financing round falls through, if the board decides the window is now — OpenAI can move fast when it wants to.
At the same time SpaceX carries its own risks.
Regulatory delays, a bad Starship test, a market correction that closes the IPO window, or Musk simply changing his mind — he's done it before.
There's also the wildcard we haven’t talked about: what, if any supply chain disruptions will occur as a result in the conflict in the middle east?
How much longer will that last?
So who knows. Pressure creates diamonds. And Elon seems to thrive in that environment.
Sure, a SpaceX IPO date could be somewhere around August. But that’s five months from now.
At 83-85 cents, you're risking 83 cents to make 17.
Is that percent gain worth it on a five-month timeline?
And if it slips past August — into Q4, or extends into 2027 — how long are you willing to hold?
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