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Friends it’s happening…
70% chance before July 1. 79% before August 1. 83% before October 1.
Nearly $1 million in volume already traded across those brackets.
This isn't a question of if anymore. It's when.
And what’s the pricing like…
The 13-point gap between July and October is the interesting part.
That's the market almost saying: "We're pretty sure this is a Q3 announcement, but we're not sure it's early Q3."
Three extra months of runway only buys you 13 percentage points.
The crowd believes this is happening fast, just not necessarily on the most aggressive timeline.
Could it happen THIS SUMMER?
The reporting lines up with the market.
Multiple outlets have SpaceX targeting a mid-2026 IPO, with the CFO already in conversations with investors and major banks engaged.
Musk himself confirmed the 2026 timeline as "accurate." When you layer in the capital needs — Starship scale-up, space-based AI data centers, the xAI integration — waiting until late 2026 or 2027 starts to look expensive.
Every quarter without public market capital is a quarter of Starship development being financed through private rounds at terms less ideal than a post-IPO balance sheet.
The July line at 70% reflects genuine uncertainty about regulatory timing and market windows.
You can have every intention of announcing in Q2 and still slip to August if the SEC review takes longer than expected or if the broader market sells off in a way that makes pricing uncomfortable.
The before April and May strikes…
Look at the bottom of the bracket list and you see something clarifying.
Before April: 2 cents.
Before May: 9 cents.
Before June: 15 cents.
The market is essentially ruling out the next 90 days entirely.
It’ll be hard to project an announcement in the coming weeks.
Or is it?
The banks are lined up, the roadshow is being planned, and the machinery is moving…
What’s the hold up?
The honest read
83% before October feels right. It’s long enough away, but still room for a decent 17% gain if proven right.
The only scenarios where this misses are a macro shock that closes the IPO window, a Starship failure that rattles investor confidence, or Musk simply changing the timeline — which he has done before on other ventures.
None of those are base case. All of them are possible.
I mean, if you believe the CFO conversations and the bank engagement signal a Q2-Q3 announcement, 70% might feel slightly low for "before July 1."
The clock is running. The market knows it.
Good luck out there.
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