Alphabet reports Q4 2025 earnings Wednesday, February 4, 2026 at 1:30 PM PT.
While prediction markets are pricing in bets on terms like "Gemini 3," "Quantum," and "European Commission,"…
I spent the last week analyzing three consecutive quarters of Google's earnings transcripts word-by-word to see what leadership actually prioritizes when talking to investors.
Here’s the words on deck.
Let’s go…
Look at the Prediction Market Edge Mention SuperMeter at how many times each word appeared the last three earnings calls.
Anything stand out?
Here’s What Could Happen During The Q4 2025 Call
Words That Have a “Likelihood” To Repeat
Gemini 3: 6-10 mentions (HIGHLY CONFIDENT)
Pattern: Went 0→0→3 across three quarters, all as forward guidance ("coming later this year")
Q4 Context: Gemini 3 officially launched November 2025 and is rolling out across Search, Workspace, Android, and Maps
Why it matters: Sundar Pichai would likely cite adoption metrics, developer traction, and integration milestones. No wonder it’s 94% as of last night.
Prediction: There could be 6-10 mentions of Gemini 3.
YouTube Shorts:Sitting at a comfortably 77% as of 25 Jan. (CONFIDENT)
Pattern: 3→5→3 across three quarters, never dips below 3
Context: Consistent monetization story ("Shorts now earn as much revenue per watch hour as in-stream")
Why it matters: YouTube had record streaming dominance in 2025 (12.8% of total TV viewing per Nielsen).
Prediction: I like it at 77%. If it’s still 77% by Wednesday I might play it.
⚠️ The Semi-Likely Mentions: Mild Probability But Not Guaranteed (I still don’t love these or like these)
Quantum: 2-4 mentions
Pattern: 0→0→2 (Willow chip breakthrough in Q3)
Context: Google's quantum chip made headlines in December 2025 with Nobel Prize-worthy research
Risk: Quantum is a "long-term bet" topic, not a revenue driver. Management might skip it unless pressed in Q&A.
I think it really depends on the tone of the call or what kind of questions they’ll get from investors.
Autonomous: 1-3 mentions
Pattern: 0→1→2 (growing steadily as Waymo scales)
Context: Waymo expanded to 10+ cities in 2025, launched teen accounts, hit 100M autonomous miles
Risk: The word "autonomous" itself is weirdly inconsistent—Q1 didn't use it despite heavy Waymo discussion.
Prediction: 0-2 mentions.
European Commission: 0-2 mentions
Pattern: 0→0→2 (only appeared when Q3 had a $3.5B fine)
Context: If Q4 had regulatory news, they'll mention it. If not, radio silence.
Prediction: 0-2 mentions. Google avoids regulatory language unless forced.
Again, not a fan of these.
And if I’m not a fan of those I’m definitely not a fan of the coinflips below…
🛑 The Coinflips and Traps:
Ironwood: 0-1 mentions
Pattern: 1→0→1 (product announcement cycle)
Context: Q1 = launch announcement, Q3 = "will be generally available soon"
Q4 outlook: If Ironwood TPUs went GA in Q4, they'll mention adoption metrics. If not, silence.
Prediction: 50/50 shot at 1 mention.
DeepMind: 0-2 mentions
Pattern: 0→1→0 (episodic, only when breakthrough happens)
Context: Q2 mentioned it for Math Olympiad gold medal achievement. But who remembers that?
Risk: Google rebranded to "Google DeepMind" but often just says "Gemini" now.
Prediction: 0-2 mentions, only if Q4 had a major research milestone.
🚨 The Traps: Words That Sound Important But Never Appear
Search Advertising / Search Ad: 0 mentions (ZERO ACROSS ALL QUARTERS)
This gets a lot of people. "Search" mentioned 50+ times per call. "Advertising" mentioned 30+ times. But never combined as "Search Advertising" or "Search Ad."
What they actually say: "Search and Other revenues," "advertising revenues," "Google Search"
Prediction: Looks like a trap!
Privacy: 0 mentions (NEVER MENTIONED)
Pattern: 0→0→0 across all three quarters
Context: Google discusses "user trust," "security," "data protection"—but avoids the word "privacy"
Prediction: 0 mentions. They don't use this word on earnings calls.
Wiz: 0 mentions (DEAD TOPIC)
Pattern: 1→0→0 (Q1 acquisition announcement, then vanished)
Reality: Google offered $23B to acquire Wiz in 2024. Wiz declined. Deal is dead.
Prediction: 0 mentions. This story is over.
Nano Banana: 0 mentions
Pattern: 0→0→1 (Q3 viral sensation reference, one-time novelty)
Prediction: 0 mentions. This was a meme, not a product or directive.
Regulatory: 0-1 mentions
Pattern: 1→0→0 (Q1 mentioned in "regulatory requirements" for sovereign AI)
Context: Google uses passive language like "compliance" or names specific entities ("European Commission")
Prediction: 0-1 mentions, only if discussing regulatory-compliant cloud products.But the rule is clear:
Good luck, see you tomorrow.
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