On February 3rd, Electronic Arts ($EA) is planing to hold its Q3 FY2026 earnings call.

While most investors will want to see is EA beats or misses, the real story is about how the prediction market is pricing in some truly bizarre outcomes.

One of the outcome being there’s a chance the call won’t happen at all.

The rules are simple, the market resolves YES if anyone on EA’s next earnings call (including the operator, prepared remarks, or Q&A) says any one of the key terms (exact phrase, incl. plural/possessive), and NO if they don’t, or if the call doesn’t happen by March 31, 2026.

First, the mentions….

The Mention SuperMeter analyzed three EA earnings calls spanning nine months (Q2 FY25, Q4 FY25, and Q1 FY26), revealing persistent patterns in executive communication rather than short-term trends.

It shows:

Instead of relying on just one earnings call (which specific mentions in it could be an anomaly), the Mention SuperMeter reveals potential predictable patterns in corporate communication by analyzing multiple quarters, and in no specific order.

This makes predictions more reliable because you can see:

There's been real noise about Jared Kushner's Affinity Partners and Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund being interested in EA.

The market is pricing "Jared/Kushner" at 7% and "Saudi Arabia" at 7-9%.

It looks like a deal is going to happen.

But just because something is newsworthy doesn't mean it gets mentioned on an earnings call.

You have to remember, large public companies almost universally refuse to comment on "rumors and speculation" about M&A or potential buyers.

Again, back to the Mention SuperMeter, the times when Jared/Kushner, Saudi Arabia, were mentioned across 9 months of calls, were zero.

“Live services” represent 73% of EA's total business. CEO Andrew Wilson calls them "the foundation of our business." So he might not be able to avoid talking about it.

Across the calls the Mention SuperMeter analyzed, “Live Services” showed 26 total mentions (average 8.7 per call).

“The Sims” obviously mentioned much higher.

But there's something else no one is talking about: EA didn't even hold the last earnings call.

On September 29, 2025, EA announced a $55 billion buyout by a consortium including The Public Investment Fund (Saudi Arabia), Silver Lake, and Affinity Partners (Jared Kushner's firm).

As a result, EA immediately stopped holding earnings calls.

The Q2 FY26 call (October 2025) was replaced with a press release that said Electronic Arts “will not be hosting an earnings conference call this quarter." Including a determined statement of “will no longer provide forward-looking guidance.

But also take a closer look at the words they used in press release…

Point is, while the February 3, 2026 call is still on the books.

But the rule is clear:

"If the earnings call does not occur by March 31, 2026, all strikes resolve to No."

So will the call happen or not? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Now there are TWO ways to LOSE on this one…

In other words, "Yes" buyers face double jeopardy:

Another way of putting it, "No" buyers have two paths to victory.

If EA closes the deal before February, there's no call.

But if the deal is still pending, there might be a call—but it would be the most legally scripted, risk-averse call in EA's history. Mentions could be slim.

I really like the upside on Yes contracts for Live Services, The Sims, and Skate. But there's no getting around the risk that the call won't even happen.

I guess that's the trade-off when the upside is this good.

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