On January 7th, Constellation Brands ($STZ) will hold its Q3 2025 earnings call.

While most analysts will be focused on EPS and revenue, a different kind of market is heating up on Kalshi—one that lets you bet on the specific words executives will say during the call.

This is a meta-game. You're predicting the language they'll use to describe it. 

By analyzing past transcripts, we might be able to see where the market might be mispriced, offering a unique edge.

We pulled last quarter's earnings call transcript, here's how many times each term was mentioned:

It really feels like these are the words that are so integral to Constellation's narrative that they are almost guaranteed to be mentioned. 

*   "Depletion / Depletions" (Yes at 84¢): This term was mentioned 12 times last quarter, making it the most dominant operational buzzword.

It's core to how they discuss sales and inventory. At 84%, the market is correctly identifying this as a near-lock.

*   "Inventory" (Yes at 71¢): Mentioned 11 times last quarter, this is another high-frequency term related to their core operations and rebalancing efforts. The 71% odds reflect its importance.

This is where the real edge is. These are words the market expects to hear, but historical data suggests they might be overvalued.

*   "Dividend" (Yes at 55¢): This is the most glaring potential mispricing. The market is giving it coin-flip odds, yet the word "Dividend" was mentioned ZERO times last quarter. While a company's dividend policy is always relevant, its absence from the last call makes the 55% probability look steep. A "No" bet at 49¢ offers an attractive risk/reward if you believe the pattern will hold.

*   "Headwind" (Yes at 90¢): This is the market's highest-confidence bet. While the word was mentioned 6 times last quarter, it was far less frequent than "Depletion" (12) or "Inventory" (11). The 90% price implies it's an absolute certainty, but the data suggests it's merely likely.

Is there a 10%+ chance they frame their challenges differently this quarter? If so, the "No" bet at 16¢ offers a significant payout.

These are words where the market odds seem to align well with their historical frequency and strategic importance.

•"Tariff" (Yes at 73¢): Mentioned 7 times last quarter, tariffs are a known and persistent risk to their margins.

The 73% odds seem to accurately reflect this ongoing concern. This isn't surprising, given that the company has previously guided to a $20 million hit from tariffs on canned beer imports from Mexico, and CFO Garth Hankinson has repeatedly flagged it as a major source of uncertainty.

•"Especial" (Yes at 57¢): As their flagship brand, Modelo Especial is always likely to get a mention, even if it was only twice last quarter.

The 57% odds capture its high signal-to-noise ratio.

This market isn't about predicting whether Constellation will beat earnings or miss on revenue. It's about something more specific: predicting the linguistic habits of corporate executives under pressure. The data from last quarter's call provides a baseline for comparison, and in a few cases, that baseline suggests the market may be overpricing certain outcomes.

The Case for "No on Dividend"

The clearest potential edge appears to be on "Dividend." The word wasn't mentioned once during last quarter's call, yet the market is pricing it at 55%—essentially a coin flip. This is a company that has historically been disciplined about when and how it discusses capital allocation. If that communication pattern holds, the current odds may be overpricing the likelihood of a mention. The question is whether anything has changed in the business or shareholder expectations that would force the topic onto this call.

The Case for "No on Headwind"

This is a higher-risk contrarian play, but the logic is worth considering. "Headwind" was mentioned 6 times last quarter—a meaningful number, but far less frequent than "Depletion" (12 times) or "Inventory" (11 times).

Yet the market is pricing "Headwind" at 90%, near certainty.

That's a higher probability than "Depletion," despite being mentioned half as often.

The question is whether the data supports that level of confidence, or if there's a 10%+ chance the company frames its challenges differently this time…

That said, there's a case for why the market might be right.

Constellation is facing multiple pressures simultaneously—tariffs, California weakness, consumer pullback—and "headwind" is the catch-all term executives use to bundle these challenges for investors. If management wants to frame Q3 as "navigating headwinds," the word becomes almost unavoidable.

The 90% price may be betting that the macro environment is bad enough to force the language, regardless of historical patterns.

Do with that what you will. To much is given, much is required.

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