By Prediction Market Edge | Dec 18, 2025

What is an American?

Better questions, what are the best odds?

Look, I love this country. Couldn’t be more pro-America.

We live in the best country ever.

If we can agree on that, you can agree with this: Whether you like him or hate Vivek it doesn't matter here.

The benefit of the Prediction Market Edge is we get to talk about a wide arrange of subjects, matters, ideologies, social issues, (and more).

All of these impact probabilities and real world outcomes.

Today is now different, we’re officially putting money on Vivek to lose.

You can read our first post here, The Vivek Head Fake.

But here’s more reasons why…

Vivek’s NYT Op-Ed

Vivek published an op-ed in The New York Times arguing that "being an American has everything to do with what one believes" and nothing to do with ancestry or heritage.

Critics called it "absurd, dishonest claptrap".

Andrew Torba, CEO of Gab, argued that Vivek's "proposition nation" is ahistorical mythology.

He says the Founders explicitly created a nation "for ourselves and our Posterity"—not for anyone who subscribes to certain ideals.

Matt Walsh also made a good point saying:

One more thing about Torba’s piece.

Vivek wanted to attack heritage Americans, but he didn't go to a conservative publication.

HE WENT TO THE NEW YORK TIMES. The apparent “official newsletter of the anti-White ruling class".

Torba says, "When someone runs to your enemy's publication to denounce you using your enemy's language, he is not your friend who happens to disagree. He is your enemy wearing a Republican jersey".

Does this really rally voters to the Ohio booth? Why is Vivek arguing American values, and not Ohio’s values?

Last Christmas, Vivek went viral for his controversial take on American culture, arguing that the reason tech companies hire foreign workers over Americans is because American culture "venerates mediocrity over excellence".

He critiqued Valuing Zack over Screech. (Even though, Zack scored almost 300 more points more than Screech on his SATs).

The other point isn’t just the argument itself — it’s the framework behind it.

The jock-versus-nerd divide Vivek invokes isn’t an empirical social category. It’s not real. It’s made up.

It’s a stock trope, created and reinforced by decades of American television and film.

Media scholars have long noted that these characters were narrative devices — exaggerated for storytelling — not accurate reflections of how schools or communities actually function.

Vivek isn’t arguing from experience or even voter reality — he’s drawing from a nationally shared media script.

I’m starting to rant but the point is this year's op-ed could be viewed as Crashout 2.0.

You have to ask, from a prediction market standpoint, how does this REALLY help Ohioans?

One more thing…

I don’t see yard signs for either candidate. My conservative friends aren’t talking about Vivek, and my liberal friends aren’t talking about Amy Acton.

What is striking is the gap between national online drama and local reality.

Vivek clearly has strength — name recognition, national attention, and loose MAGA association all matter. But that doesn’t guarantee an automatic win.

The op-ed reinforces everything we wrote about last week: this campaign is about Vivek, not Ohio.

The Position

I bought at 43 cents. If Vivek loses (Democratic party wins), the contract pays out at $1. That's a potential gain of 57 cents per contract, a 132% return.

The election is still 320 days away. So it does tie up some capital.

A lot can happen between now and then.

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