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First, the news…
Bloomberg published a deep investigation into the new breed of trader prediction markets are creating… They are people who've figured out how to time real-world events with enough precision to consistently win. This is raising uncomfortable questions about where the line between skill and manipulation actually sits. Some argue, this is one of the most important long-form piece written about prediction markets this year.
The Atlantic followed with a companion piece on what they're calling "outsider trading" — They call it the “hair dryer incident”. That’s where someone reportedly manipulated a Parisian airport temperature sensor to win a Polymarket weather bet, is just the beginning. The piece argues a new, gonzo style of fraud. Not insider trading, but active manipulation of the underlying real-world event being bet on, could be an existential threat to the entire industry.
The NCAA warned that prediction markets could intensify threats against student-athletes. NCAA Chief Legal Officer Scott Bearby told a panel of state legislators that the association has already tracked more than 1,500 gambling-related abusive messages directed at student-athletes since 2024, and that prediction markets operating outside state-regulated sportsbook frameworks make enforcement even harder. "Both of those activities, prediction markets and prop bets, would be high on our list to do away with," Bearby said.
- Sidebar to this. At some point, I’ll probably write a long piece about the convergence of college athletics, NIL, sports betting, trading. There are so many opinions and mixed messages. You have online sports betting companies sponsoring events, you have college athletes raking in millions from endorsements, and the already uphill battle prediction markets and adjacent companies have is such a mess. All that to say it’ll be worth it to dig into it a little bit. At least before this years NCAAF.
The Philadelphia Inquirer traced the jurisdictional battle between states and the federal government over gambling all the way back through American history. Historically the e federal government historically left gambling to the states. Intervening only to protect states from each other. Now for the first time, a federal regulator is actively limiting states' ability to regulate prediction markets. Is it a genuine reversal of two centuries of American gambling policy or are we charting new territory?
Toobit — a global crypto exchange — just launched a $100,000 USDT prediction market rewards campaign running through August 11 (note: this is a sponsored press release — we're not being paid to mention them, but worth flagging that it is) — structured across four activities rewarding first-time traders, accuracy, volume, and ROI leaderboard performance. It's a small signal of something larger: the $100K reward pool is less interesting than the fact that a Cayman Islands crypto exchange is now running prediction market campaigns as a standard customer acquisition tool. Monthly transaction volume across major prediction market venues crossed $20 billion in early 2026, with active wallets nearly tripling to 840,000.
Now, for the reason we’re all here…
The 2028 presidential race hasn't officially started.
Nobody has filed. Nobody has debated. Nobody has shaken a single hand in Iowa.
But right now, serious money is positioning on a completely different question, not who runs, but who gets endorsed first.
Because in 2026, the endorsements are the race.Trump's endorsement. Musk's endorsement. Sanders' endorsement. RFK Jr.'s endorsement. Biden's endorsement.
Every single one of them is blowing up prediction markets right now.
And the picture is more intense than you'd expect.
🇺🇸 TRUMP — THE MOST CONSEQUENTIAL ENDORSEMENT IN 2028
🐳 YES — Will Trump endorse a 2028 Republican candidate before December 31? — $743.1K volume. Smart money backing a Trump endorsement before year end. The sitting president picking his successor before his term is even over.
That's the most consequential endorsement in modern Republican politics — and whales see it happening this year.
🚀 MUSK — THE WILD CARD
🐳 YES — Will Elon Musk endorse a 2028 presidential candidate before December 31? — $412.3K volume. Smart money backing a Musk endorsement before year end.
🐳 NO — Will Elon Musk run for office before 2028? — $512.3K volume. He endorses — but doesn't run himself.
🐳 YES — Will Elon Musk step down from any government role before December 31? — $892.4K volume. Smart money backing a Musk government exit before year end.
The whale picture on Musk: He leaves his government role. He endorses a 2028 candidate. He doesn't run himself. Smart money sees Musk as kingmaker, not candidate.
🐘🫏 THE DEMOCRATIC ENDORSEMENT RACE
🐳 YES — Will Bernie Sanders endorse a 2028 presidential candidate before December 31? — $198.3K volume. Smart money backing an early Sanders endorsement.
🐳 YES — Will RFK Jr. endorse a 2028 presidential candidate before December 31? — $287.4K volume. Smart money backing an RFK Jr. endorsement before year end.
🐳 NO — Will Joe Biden endorse a 2028 presidential candidate before December 31? — $243.8K volume. Biden stays quiet through year end.
🐳 NO — Will Michelle Obama announce a 2028 presidential run before December 31? — $892.4K volume. The draft Michelle movement — faded decisively. Nearly $900,000 says she doesn't announce.
The whale picture on Democratic endorsements: Sanders moves first. RFK Jr. picks a side. Biden stays out. Michelle Obama doesn't run.
🗳️ THE CANDIDATES WHO AREN'T RUNNING
🐳 NO — Will Kamala Harris run for California Governor in 2026? — $743.1K volume. Harris doesn't run for governor — she's positioning for something bigger.
🐳 NO — Will AOC run for New York Governor in 2026? — $312.4K volume. AOC stays in Congress.
🐳 NO — Will Gavin Newsom be indicted before December 31? — $412.3K volume. The Newsom indictment theory — faded.
The whale picture on 2028 positioning: Trump endorses his successor before December 31. Musk picks a side and exits government.
Sanders and RFK Jr. both endorse early.
Biden stays quiet. Michelle Obama doesn't look like she’ll run.
And Kamala, well, she's running for something else.
The 2028 race is being shaped right now. Not in Iowa. On a public blockchain.
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