Yesterday the prediction market for whether Minnesota Governor Tim Walz will leave office before 2027 exploded.
What had been a low-probability market trading calmly around 5% suddenly spiked to over 26%.
On the surface, the question is simple:
Is 26% a steal versus Will Walz stay in office until January 1st, 2027?
But underneath, this isn’t really about dates or legal guilt.
It’s can Tim handle the pressure?
Presidential Prediction
First, President Trump posted a stunning claim on Truth Social, stating Walz would "possibly leave office before his Term is up... caught, REDHANDED... stealing Tens of Billions of Taxpayer Dollars."
Whether Governor Walz had any knowledge of fraud or not, “possibly leave office” feels unusually directive — as if Trump believes something is already in motion.
Still, that alone is never enough for an event play.
Trump is known for incendiary posts and hyperbole.
But Tim Walz’s situation is different.
Walz is a Walking Scandal Bucket…
At the center of this is Walz’s administration overseeing what may be some of the largest frauds in American history.
The first is Feeding Our Future — a proven $250 million COVID-era fraud scheme that has already produced more than 50 guilty pleas and multiple convictions.
The second is the alleged $9 billion Somali daycare fraud, involving claims that daycare centers billed the state for children who never existed.
Nick Shirley’s video on the issue racked up 138 million views on X, prompting federal agents to flood Minnesota and the Trump administration to freeze all federal child-care funding for the state.
Now Shirley-style “spin-offs” are popping up nationwide.
Citizen journalists are surprise-visiting sketchy clinics and daycare centers.
There will almost certainly be more of this.
But back to Tim…
Maybe it would help if we looked at how often governors resign, get impeached, or leave before their term is up…
Governors DO leave early, but not because of fraud….
The real question isn’t guilt.
It’s whether the political pressure becomes unbearable.
So it helps to ask: How often do governors actually leave office early?
Governors do leave early — but rarely because of scandal.
Since 1776 there have been 219 gubernatorial resignations before terms expired.
But the overwhelming majority — including many under ethics investigations, criminal probes, and national outrage — simply refused to leave.
Governorships aren’t 9-to-5 jobs. You can’t get fired and pack your desk.
Modern politicians have learned that if they dig in and refuse to resign, removal is rare and politically costly.
Take Ralph Northam (Virginia, 2019). Faced national calls to resign over a blackface scandal. Refused. Completed his term.
Or Chris Christie (New Jersey, 2016). Survived "Bridgegate" and multiple investigations. Served out his term.
But some DO crack under pressure.
Andrew Cuomo (New York, 2021). Resigned amid sexual harassment allegations when his own party turned on him.
Robert Bentley (Alabama, 2017). Resigned to avoid impeachment when donors dried up and party elites abandoned him.
Eric Greitens (Missouri, 2018). Resigned when criminal exposure and unified opposition made staying untenable.
The point is, the questions you gotta be asking is whether the pressure—from federal investigations, a presidential call-out, frozen funding, and national attention—becomes too much for Tim to handle.
Governors leave early only when support collapses and staying offers no upside.
Which is happening to Tim because he’s already announced he won’t run for reelection.
I don’t see any upside for Walz and it looks like he has nothing to gain by staying in office for another 12 months while federal investigators circle.
Look at his actions. He’s capitulating. If he wasn’t going to back down, if he were prepared to fight through the allegations—wouldn’t he be running for a third term?
I don’t know what’s going to happen (none of us do), but I definitely don’t think he’s going to finish the calendar year in one way or another.
I’m taking a small YES position at 26 cents with a plan to hold onto event resolution.
Even if the contract doubles to 50 cents, and I double my position, I'm not exiting.
What $1,000 Gets You
***Market prices as of January 6, 2026. Prediction markets are dynamic—check Kalshi for current pricing.
Taking a YES position at 26¢ (Before 2027): You're expressing the view that the pressure becomes unbearable at some point in the next 12 months.
A $1,000 position pays out $3,846 if Walz leaves before 2027. At nearly 3-to-1 upside, this looks attractive given the modern pattern of scandal-driven exits.
Taking a YES position at 18¢ (Before July): You're expressing the view that the pressure peaks by summer. A $1,000 position pays out $5,556 if Walz resigns by July. This is the aggressive play for those who believe the federal investigation will move quickly.
Taking a NO position at 74¢ (Before 2027): You're expressing the view that Walz weathers the storm. He hasn't been personally charged, and resigning would be an admission of guilt. A $1,000 position pays out $1,351 if he serves out his term. This is the safer, lower-upside trade.
The bottom line: Resigning to avoid impeachment is a strategic choice—leave on your own terms before you're forced out. The market is pricing in whether Walz resigns before impeachment becomes inevitable.
Catch Up:
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