The Financial Times just dropped a big piece on the prediction market explosion, and it's everything you'd expect from the old guard: a mix of awe, confusion, and irrational fear.
For reference, the prediction market is exploding.
The Financial Times call it the "casino mentality of 2025." They fret about "financial gamification" and "economic nihilism."
Good. That's your edge.
Here’s how to read between the lines of the FT's analysis to sharpen your event-picking instincts.
Your Edge #1: Trust the Market, Not the Pundits
The FT's most fearful take is what they call a “shift in trust patterns.”
Faith in traditional experts is collapsing. Trust is moving “from the vertical to the lateral axis”. From talking heads on TV and media to the collective intelligence of the crowd .
But of course they’d say that. They’re the ones losing marketshare!
When you see a prediction market pricing an event at 30% while a panel of experts on TV unanimously calls it a “sure thing,” what would you do? Trust the market price or “them”?
Your Edge #2: The "Casino Mentality" Might Be Your Liquidity
The FT worries about a "casino mentality". An influx of amateurs from platforms like Robinhood and Gemini. They see this as a risk.
But you should see it as an opportunity.
A flood of new, less-informed retail money means more emotional trades, more overreactions to headlines, and more mispriced contracts.
This means more opportunities.
Your Edge #3: The Old Guard's Fear is Your Signal
The article is filled with warnings about manipulation, feedback loops, and the need for regulation.
This is what happens when a legacy institution confronts a technology that makes its old models obsolete.
The more the establishment worries, the more things are moving in the right direction.
Their fear and hesitation create a window for us to operate.
The fact that the FT is writing about this with a tone of alarm, instead of a tone of opportunity, while also admitting the prediction markets are more accurate—is the ultimate signal that you are in the right place at the right time.
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Platform Shortwave added “Quiet Push,” a setting that batches alerts twice a day; creators say it saved their focus windows.
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