President Trump is apparently interviewing Rick Rieder (BlackRock's Chief Investment Officer for Global Fixed Income) for Federal Reserve Chair this week.

Meanwhile, the previous frontrunners—Kevin Warsh (40%) and Kevin Hassett (39%)—have been locked in a dead heat for weeks. I wrote about that here.

But before you go all-in on Ravishing Rick Rieder, you have to ask….

When the President schedules an interview with someone for the most powerful economic position on the planet, should that person really be priced at 8%?

Or is something else going on?

Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair ends May 15, 2026, four months away.

If he lasts that long.

Serving grand jury subpoenas to the Fed is unprecedented.

But for now, Powell's not budging.

Regardless, his term expires in May whether he likes it or not.

Rick Rieder isn't a household name like Powell or Warsh.

But in financial circles he's a boss.

Here’s Rick on the Meb Faber show.

He's a Wharton guy who's spent decades managing real money and not publishing papers.

He won't fit the mold of the 400 PhDs at the Fed.

But he does appear he could get the job done.

What’s more he’s said this:

Exactly what Trump wants.

If you believe Trump operates the way he describes in The Art of the Deal—creating leverage, keeping people off-balance, making surprise picks when everyone expects the obvious choice—then would Rieder at 8% would be a slam dunk, or a distraction?

Scenario A: Here's the thing: even if this is a power play, 8% might still be an opportunity.

If Trump is using Rieder for leverage then what happens when the interview goes well?

Suddenly the "power play" becomes a "real option."

That 8% can go to 40%+ real quick.

Scenario B: Trump is creating a decoy to cause Powell to leave before the end of his term. What better way to kick a guy when he’s down than to suggest his replacement is the guy who’s responsible for a Global Income index. Something Powell’s never done before.

Either way, this story has a lot of runway. Especially considering central banks chiefs are already pledging loyalty. Trump V. Central Banks 2026 on any ones bingo card?🙋

That’s beside the point.

Last night I picked up a small position—Rieder at 7%.

Not because of the low cost of entry, high upside. Not because the prediction market barely moved after the interview announcement.

But Kevin Hassett is an economist and policy advisor (AEI, Council of Economic Advisers).

Kevin Warsh is kind of a hybrid, ex-Morgan Stanley banker turned Fed Governor.

Rieder is pure buy-side. Rieder knows he can just do things.

Look at Trump's other appointments:

Would it really be a surprise to see a buy-side guy running the Fed?

At this point, it'd be more surprising if Trump didn't pick someone with real market experience over another policy guy like Hassett.

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