This could all change by the time you finish reading this sentence.

But right now, prediction markets are pricing a 40%ish chance the U.S. government shuts down on Saturday but it’s been all over the place.

Down from 90.

Writing this Thursday night (last night).

24 hours ago, the odds were sitting at 10%.

$22 million in total volume on Kalshi…

Welcome to buying contracts on one of the most unreliable networks of people ever assembled…

Tonight the Senate reached a deal to fund most of the government through September and give the Department of Homeland Security a two-week extension.

Notice I said "reached a deal," not "passed it."

They still need to vote. And then the House needs to vote. All before midnight Friday.

The problem? The House is in recess until Monday.

Speaker Mike Johnson told Bloomberg: "We may have trouble getting everybody back this weekend. We typically have a 72 hour notice."

So here we are. Senate has a deal. House is scattered across the country—some on overseas trips. And the deadline is midnight tomorrow.
I won't spare you the “how we got here” speech.

But I will tell you where we are….

Many contract holders are taking the Senate reaching a deal as it’s time to cash in their chips.

Others are sticking it out.

And others, of which I’ll catch you up on the conversation—are asking the questions anyone with a critical mind should be asking…

This is the real question.

If the Senate passes the deal Friday afternoon and the House can't vote until Monday morning, does that few-hour gap count as a shutdown?

The Office of Management and Budget typically declares when a shutdown begins. But if there's an imminent deal and the lapse is purely technical, will they even declare it?

Here's what Kalshi's rulebook says:

"If the website of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management contains a notice that the government at least partially shut down on January 31, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET due to a lapse in appropriations, then the market resolves to Yes."

Look: "at least partially shut down."

A partial shutdown counts!

Nogibet46 caught this early: "Take a good look at the example OPM post in the Rules PDF. It does not say anything about a 'shutdown.' The technical term is 'lapse in appropriations.' 'Shutdown' is a word the media uses. Agencies have in the past worked through lapses in appropriations as if nothing happened. Unless the House votes in time, it's highly likely that DHS will have a lapse in appropriation on Saturday."

Freakydeaky posted an NBC News quote: "While funding will temporarily lapse for multiple agencies starting at 12:01 a.m. Saturday, the impact is expected to be minimal since most federal employees don't work on the weekend."

Then added: "partial shutdown counts according to the rules for the bet"

But tomoysterbar isn't buying it: "This was an easy one. the OMB (Russ Vought) officially declares a shutdown. so even if the house doesn't get back in time to vote by midnight tomorrow, the OMB will certainly not declare a shutdown given both parties deal agreed to a deal that will be executed in a couple days max. there's far too much process and paperwork that needs to be done to oficcally shut down the government."

Bagginsmcgee pushed back hard: "Haha tell me you have no idea how OMB runs without telling me. If there is no law signed and in place, regardless of verbal agreement or votes, OMB will declare shutdown if not partial even for a day if they have to. They do not play around. Look at Jan 2018, they declared it with a deal in place that was signed the following Tuesday."

Market.Man offered a third theory: "It will technically be a shutdown but the Kalshi contract will not define it as one, since OBM will not post a notification if the end is in sight"

Lintythrower396 pointed out: "Only 218 members actually need to be present for a quorum, and in that case, only 110 votes to pass. Not everyone needs to return, the agreement is bi-partisan."

But there's a catch.

Macroplastic posted: "https://clerk.house.gov/ 'Next Session: Tomorrow, 10:30AM'"

Luckily spinkick immediately caught it. Responded: "That's a procedural session, not a voting session."!

Bagginsmcgee echoed, "procedural session not voting session come on man"

spinkick, maybe the most underrated detective in all this, revelaed, "I checked congressional travel and flight logs. No one is in the air. It's going to be a shutdown."

However, Whatever.you.say wasn't buying it: "You are overthinking this" he replied.

"Mike Johnson is unlikely to bring the House back until Monday to pass a new funding package devoid of DHS funding. The shutdown will occur Friday so even if everyone’s all chummy they need to get back to work to vote." rinskilla said.

"By the way especially for an agency like DHS they probably have people working on Saturday / Sunday" replied Nogibet46.

Lisa Desjardins from PBS NewsHour posted: "Will there be a shutdown? Yes, but a v short one, likely a weekend one. And not for every agency. Then what? After this funding deal gets through the House and to POTUS, there will be two weeks to negotiate changes/rules for ICE/CPB. That will be very tricky."

Anyway, it’s Thursday night. Markets are all over the place and Kalshi contract holders are also all over the place. No one knows they’re hat from cattle.

The Senate has a deal. The House is in recess. The deadline is midnight Friday.

And the entire market hinges on whether OPM posts a notice on their website by 11:00 AM Saturday that says "the government at least partially shut down on January 31, 2026... due to a lapse in appropriations."

The no's may very well likely lose despite the government did not shut down.

The yes’s may very well win because while the government moves right along come Monday morning.

Call it what you want. A fig in the tree. A pig in a bush.

In prediction nerd terms it's called an "oracle mismatch"..

An “oracle mismatch” happens when a prediction market’s official resolution source (its “oracle”) disagrees with how normal people would judge whether the underlying real‑world event happened.
On earth we call it a technicality.

In market terms, reality is whatever the rulebook says the oracle is. If the OPM banner lights up, the yes side gets paid, even if every normal person and news media says “the government never really shut down”.

Financestaffer is confident, and no, I don’t think he’s a staffer for anyone in Washington. But he said "yes wins: confirmed there will be a temporary lapse. [OPM] will put it up regardless because government workers need to know if they have to come in. It's a lock."

Who knows.

Good luck out there. Trade smart.

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