Looksmaxxing governor Gavin Newsom is trading at 35% to win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination on Kalshi.

More than triple his nearest competitor (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 10%) and represents over $38 million in trading volume.

Sounds about right. Right?

Before you answer, you have to ask: is 35% the right price for an early Democratic frontrunner? What does a 35% lead mean?

History says it’s a red flag. Beware!

What I’m about demonstrate for you might be the easiest way to spot misprices and edges in political prediction markets right now.

Since 1972, there have been 9 competitive Democratic primary cycles.

But the early national frontrunner (those who were the early favorites) won only 2 of them.

Two. Out of nine.

Everyone else came from second place or deep in the pack.

1972 - McGovern crushes the favorite

Edmund Muskie was the establishment pick.

Until George McGovern started in low single digits.

McGovern won.

1976 - "Jimmy who?"
National polls focused on Humphrey, Muskie, Kennedy.

Until Jimmy Carter burst on the scene.

Carter won.

1988 - Frontrunner implodes due to Money Business.
Gary Hart led in 1987.

Until scandal knocked him out as a result of activities on a boat called “Monkey Business”.

Michael Dukakis was trailing through most of '87. He won.

1992 - Clinton from way downtown.
Bill Clinton wasn't ahead at the start.

He rose during the actual primary year. Clinton won.

2004 - Dean to Kerry
Howard Dean dominated polls for months.

He had money. He was "inevitable."

Until we saw him screaming.

John Kerry (polling in low single digits nationally) won the caucuses and became nominee within weeks.

2008 - The big one
Hillary Clinton led national polls for nearly a year. She was the establishment favorite. The Clinton machine. Early fundraising dominance.

Barack Obama was a first-term senator polling in the teens. He won Iowa. You know the rest.

See the pattern? Early leads could spell trouble.

But it’s not true in every domain.

In sports, scoring first typically means winning.

But in Democratic primaries?

Leading first loses 78% of the time.

It's the exact opposite!

Why?

Sports are different than politics? Different beasts altogether?

I don’t know. But what I can tell you is that 35% on Newsom looks dangerous.

Do you agree? If you’re running for office, or planning to, do you WANT to be in the lead this early?

The market is pricing him like sports. But this isn't sports.

This is Democratic primary politics, where the early leader is structurally disadvantaged.

Since early Democratic frontrunners have won 2 out of 9 competitive primaries since 1972.

That's 22%.

Roughly 4-to-1 odds against.

Gavin Newsom is trading at 35%.

That's roughly 2-to-1 odds against.

The market is pricing Newsom as 59% more likely to win than the historical pattern suggests.

Put another way: If you ran this scenario 100 times based on Democratic primary history, the early frontrunner would win about 22 times.

But the prediction market is pricing like he’d win 35 times??? Get out of here! 

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