The prediction market is saying October-December 2025 will drop 17% from the prior quarter ($320B → $264B).
An 80% probability it hits above $260B and only a 16% chance it crosses $270B.
Earnings drop February 25th.
But if we step back, when you look at the last eight quarters…
You’ll see the pricing is bananas.
Spot the Pattern
Look at Q4 2025 compared to Q4 2024.
Q4 2024 (Oct-Dec): $439 billion
Q4 2025 (Oct-Dec): Market pricing $264 billion
**Editors note: This chart has been corrected from the email version. 2025 Quarters dates.
That's a 40% year-over-year drop in the exact same calendar months.
Then add this…
Q3 2025 (Jul-Sep) just printed $320B.
So the prediction market is saying October-December 2025 will drop 17% from the prior quarter ($320B → $264B).
Yet, Q4 has historically been the strongest quarter.
The Q3 2024 to Q4 2024 exploded 137%.
From $185B (Q3) to $439B.
Sure, another 137% spike is possible.
But a 17% drop?
Wouldn’t that assumes Q4 2025 was a disaster? Not for Coinbase, but for crypto at large?
Q4 2025 Crypto Events
BTC path:
Early October: BTC peaked around 126k, setting a new all‑time high.
November: BTC sold off violently, dropping into the 80–90k zone at the lows, a 30–36% drawdown from the peak depending on venue and intraday extremes.
December: BTC spent much of the month in the high‑80k to low‑90k range, i.e., still down roughly 30% from the October top even though it was up big YTD.
ETF flow picture:
November 2025 saw the first net outflows of the year from global/digital‑asset ETFs and ETPs, with several billion dollars pulled from Bitcoin and Ethereum products.
Those outflows coincided directly with the November BTC drawdown and reflected de‑risking rather than fresh speculative inflows.
Volatility and deleveraging:
Multiple sources describe November as a $1T‑plus crypto deleveraging event, with BTC’s drop from 126k126k to the low‑80ks erasing over a trillion in market cap and triggering massive liquidations.
Liquidity was thinner after earlier leverage flushes, Reddit exploded, so selling pressure translated into larger price and sentiment moves than a “normal” correction.
It’s the “tale of two months”. October euphoria, November–December hangover.
So when BTC ran to ~$126K and then puked ~30% into the $80–90K range, every step counted: the euphoric bids, the panic offers, the margin-call liquidations.
Either way you slice it, it’s trading volume—both sides of the coin. Pun intended.
Three Weeks Out From Earnings, We Have Options…
As of Jan 14, 2026…
Above $280B Trading Volume (≈6% implied probability — “No” is 94¢)
YES: Q3 printed big volume. Even with a 30% BTC drawdown, October’s run to $126K could’ve generated monster notional early in the quarter.
If October carried the quarter, $280B is doable.
NO: November ETF outflows and deleveraging killed participation; retail stepped back, ETF money was leaving, and activity may not be enough for the quarter to clear $280B.
Above $260B Trading Volume (≈80% implied probability — “Yes” ~82¢, “No” ~20¢)
YES: Volatility drives trading. A 30% BTC move from $126K to the high-80Ks creates volume both ways; October euphoria plus November panic can still add up to a big quarter even if the back half is ugly.
NO: Going from Q3’s level to ~$264B implies a meaningful step-down, which is the market basically saying “fatigue after the blowoff.”
If November–December were as dead as the flows/risk-off behavior suggest, even $260B could end up being on the high side.
Don’t Miss These Events
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