The Kalshi market for the Seattle Seahawks to win the Super Bowl is currently trading at 14 cents. That implies a 14% chance they take home the trophy.

Most people look at that and think, "Should I bet on the Seahawks?" 

Let’s be honest— will Pete Carrol deliver a ring this year?

No. I mean, highly unlikely.

That’s why we're looking at it differently. We're looking at the other side of the contract: betting the Seahawks won't win the Super Bowl, which is trading at 87 cents.

Should be 1% chance. 

Think about it:

The psychology makes sense, right?

I mean, no one wants to bet on a massive favorite—risking $500 to win $100 feels terrible. 

But on a prediction market, an 87% chance of something happening feels different.

It feels like a high-probability, authentic, hedged way to earn a 14% return.

It's the same math, but a different mental frame.

But the question is whether it’s worth it.

Look, the Seahawks aren't winning the Super Bowl, by the way.

It'd be hilarious if they do. But they're not winning the Super Bowl.

Sam Darnold, get out of here. What are you nuts?

Again, the writers here would put the odds here at 1-5%.

So you're getting paid to take a position on something that really feels like a near-certainty.

Take a look at Draftkings (Ticker: DKNG)—the Seahawks are priced around +550, or higher to win the Super Bowl.

If you think they won't win, whatever, right?

You can't bet against them directly.

You have to pick a different team to win outright, which means you're taking on a completely different risk.

But in prediction markets, you don’t have to bet on the winner.

You can bet directly that the Seahawks will not win the Super Bowl.

You're just saying, "This specific outcome won't happen."

That's the structural advantage of prediction markets.

Every contract has two sides: Yes and No. You can take either position. Traditional sportsbooks don't work that way.

They force you to pick a winner, which means you're always betting on something, never purely against it.

And because most people are still wired to think like sportsbook bettors—hunting for the longshot winner—the "No" side is often underpriced.

14% is still double digits.

If you did, you’d buy the "No" contract on the Seahawks winning the Super Bowl at 87 cents.

If the Seahawks don't win (which they won't), the contract pays out $1.00.

Your profit: 13 cents per contract, or a ~14% return on your capital.

In concrete terms:

- Invest $1,000

- If Seahawks don't win, you get back $1,139

- Profit: $139

That's a ~14% return for taking the position that the Seattle Seahawks will not win the Super Bowl. The Super Bowl is February 8, 2026—44 days away.

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