For the first time, prediction markets are letting you bet on which brands show up during the big game.
Super Bowl ads cost between $7-$10 million for 30 seconds.
That said, lucky for us, media outlets report in advance of the Super Bowl who will be advertising.
That’s great news.
Until they got to Anthropic.
The Anthropic Controversy: Did the Rules Change Mid-Trade?
Here’s what happened…
Multiple outlets (The Wall Street Journal, Ars Technica, Bloomberg) confirmed that Anthropic is running a Super Bowl ad.
The ad mocks OpenAI for putting advertisements in ChatGPT, positioning Claude as the "ad-free AI assistant."
The ad exists. It's been unveiled. It's airing during Super Bowl LX on February 8th.
Traders saw this and bought YES on Anthropic at 13-15¢.
Anticipating a 6-7x return.
Easy money, right?
Not so fast!
Kalshi added this note to the contract, after people had already bought in:
"IMPORTANT INFORMATION: This market resolves based on the particular brand, company, product, or service listed being specifically advertised... To be clear, if the listed market is a parent company (e.g. "Anthropic") and one of their brands or products is identified in an otherwise qualifying advertisement (e.g. "Claude"), but the advertisement does not contain any specifically listed strike, the market will resolve to No."
Translation: If the ad says "Claude" but doesn't say "Anthropic," it resolves to NO.
And guess what? The Anthropic Super Bowl ad only says "Claude."
This is why you read the rules…
Things went from "confirmed value play" to "potential lawsuit" in a matter of hours…
The Kalshi comments section exploded.
Soft.bison, a YES holder, wasn't backing down: "Anthropic has already resolved for yes per the Wall Street Journal, and per Kalshi's own terms regarding sources... This is how a fledgling company like Kalshi gets litigated and regulated."
Meanwhile, the NO holders were having a field day.
"Bro it’s over" Tadgh said.
BernieBro reminded everyone, "Live and learn. Read the rules next time."
Urban.miner came off the top rope with: "I even fed the full rules into Claude itself and it confirmed that the market will be NO."
Did Kalshi Move the Goalposts?
YES holders argue the original contract said the market resolves if "Anthropic purchases and airs an advertisement during the Super Bowl broadcast." The WSJ confirmed Anthropic did exactly that.
The rule about "specific brand identification" was added later.
NO holders argue the rules always defined what counts as a "qualifying advertisement," and parent company ads without specific brand identification never counted.
Kalshi's clarification was always implicit in the rules; they just poured salt on the wound. I mean, made it explicitly clear to avoid confusion.
THIS IS WHY YOU READ THE RULES.
And why you might want to ignore everything else in today’s letter…
Ye’s $7M Cell Phone Ad That Crushed
Remember this low budget ad from last year?
No production crew. No agency. No polished editing.
Just Ye. Holding his phone. Talking directly to the camera about Yeezy.
Ye spent $7 million for those 30-seconds.
We’re still talking about it.
The ad generated massive attention. It was raw, unfiltered, and completely unexpected.
Who’s to say he won’t do it again?
While there are no confirmed reports Yeezy will be advertising, it’s trading at 9¢.
That means a $250 bet would net you roughly $2,190.
But again, let’s look at the rules…
"Markets are saying there's an 11% 9% chance as of this morning—February 5th.
Sure he’s been “quiet” lately, traveling, performing.
And while he'’s no stranger to controversy…
But maybe, just maybe, he’ll return.
Look, he's done it before. He knows it works.
For him, what’s $7 million for a little Yeezy brand visibility?
The ROI on Super Bowl exposure is massive, even for a cell phone ad.
I mean, if there's one person who would randomly drop $7M on a last-minute Super Bowl spot, it's Kanye.
9¢ on Yeezy is essentially predicting that Kanye does what Kanye does—show up and insert himself in the conversation.
At 10-to-1 odds by golly he might actually do it.
Or not.
It is Ye we’re talking about here.
Anyway, speaking of 10x opportunities you should avoid….
Jeep at 9¢?
Considering Jeep’s illustrious relationship with the NFL..
In 2016 they launched an ad called "Portraits" which won the Clio award celebrating Jeep's heritage during Super Bowl 50.
Bill Murray appeared in Jeep’s 2020 “Groundhog Day” ad for the Jeep Gladiator
Bruce Springsteen delivered a unity message in 2021…
And last year a two-minute film featuring Harrison Ford aired…
But this year, this is the biggest fake out yet.
Yesterday, Jeep hosted a preview event for journalists to showcase their new 2026 ad—a full Super Bowl-quality commercial featuring a kid, a Big Mouth Billy Bass, and a Jeep Cherokee.
Except, according to The Autopian,
"Jeep has decided to put a bunch of effort into making a Super Bowl-level advertisement … that it won't be airing during the Super Bowl. Instead, the automaker is releasing the ad today in the lead-up to the event in an attempt to capitalize on the buzz. And it's hoping journalists like me will help its cause."
It doesn’t look like Jeep is running a Super Bowl ad now does it?
Watch out for those false strikes!
Couple other mentions before we go…
Allstate is at 42%, but their last appearance was in 2021.
Netflix had prior ad buys in 2017, 2018, 2022, 2023. But nothing confirmed for 2026.
We know Uber Eats is advertising for the Super Bowl as DoorDash trades at 13 cents.
You’d think, as competitors they’d both want the eyeballs.
Don’t even think about it!
DoorDash is reportedly sitting out this year.
So ya, be careful on some of these.
In some ways it’s tough to find an edge in prediction markets but if you know where to look it’s really not.
You just have to know where to look.
More often than not, the “no” trade, or sitting out altogether is the better play.
Speaking of “no’s”, knowing what we do know, or at least what’s been reported you’d think the “no’s” for some of these would be sitting at 95-99%.
Good luck this weekend.
Hope you liked todays read.
Prediction markets are always this fun.
Welcome to the new game.
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