The goal here is simple: help you understand how prediction markets work, what different odds might be saying, and where the signal is hiding in the noise.

I’ll never promise guaranteed returns.

This isn’t a trading signal service, I’m not an “insider,” and I don’t have access to confidential data.

I write about public markets, public prices, and public news, the same way any macro or options newsletter does.

I don’t operate an exchange, run a fund, coordinate trading strategies, or place or cancel orders on anyone’s behalf. I don’t build algos or run bots to generate flow or trade.

But I am insatiably curious about prediction markets, how they can be applied to our lives, and I like to write about it.

If you want to learn more about prediction markets, sharpen your edge, or just think more clearly about how these markets fit into the wider world, you’re in the right place.

My first prediction market trade was the 2016 presidential election. I might’ve made a couple hundred bucks. I don’t even remember.

Since then, I spent years behind the scenes in financial publishing. Writing about the markets along with some of the biggest names in trading education, markets, and macro research.

Speaking of predictions, last year I won a year‑end Bitcoin “prediction contest” — accurately predicting the year‑end price of Bitcoin to the dollar.

They said it was no surprise the prediction market newsletter guy accurately predicted the year end price of bitcoin.

This newsletter might not make you rich. And I don’t take many positions I write about. (When and if I do, I’ll tell you).

But my hope is it will help you think differently, and more clearly, about prediction markets.

Thanks for joining,
Michael Kane

P.S. Oh, and if you haven’t had the chance to check it out, go to PredictionMarketWhales.com to get free 3‑day access to the #1 capital‑flow tracker for prediction markets. My team put a lot of energy into it, and I think you’ll find it useful.